📈 Economy
· Next Week
Bank of Japan (BOJ) leaves its policy rate unchanged at 1.00% at the July 30–31, 2026 meeting
Probability
83%
The BOJ raised its policy rate to 1.00% in the current cycle. Rate futures (as of July 2026) and analyst consensus see the next hike earliest in September or October 2026. An open Cassandra prediction forecasts a BOJ hike to 1.25% by October 2026—consistent with a hold in July. Wage growth in Japan is not yet broadly enough anchored; the BOJ recently signalled a data-dependent approach. Historically the BOJ manages expectations well: hold decisions without surprises are the norm when no market pressure exists.
Data basis for this prediction
- Bank of Japan – Monetary Policy Meeting schedule 2026: Sitzung 30.–31. Juli 2026 (boj.or.jp)
- FinanceCalendar.com – BOJ Rate Decision Juli 2026: Markterwartung Halten bei 1,00 % (Stand Juli 2026)
- Trading Economics – Japan Interest Rate: 1,00 % (Stand Juli 2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
Die BOJ beschloss am 31. Juli 2026 mit 8:1 Stimmen, den Leitzins unverändert bei 1,00 % zu belassen – exakt wie vorhergesagt. Das Ergebnis entsprach dem Konsens aller 52 von Bloomberg befragten Ökonomen. Lediglich das hawkishe Mitglied Hajime Takata stimmte für eine Anhebung auf 1,25 %. Die BOJ begründete die Pause mit der Notwendigkeit, die Wirkung der Zinserhöhung vom Juni 2026 zu beobachten. Quellen: Bloomberg (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-31/bank-of-japan-holds-interest-rate-steady-at-1-as-expected), Focus Economics (https://www.focus-economics.com/countries/japan/news/monetary-policy/japan-central-bank-meeting-31-07-2026-bank-of-japan-holds-rates-in-july/), LBBW (https://www.lbbw.de/artikel/news-und-einschaetzungen/boj-zinsentscheid-juli-2026_am79zqourc_d.html)