Bank of Japan (BoJ) keeps its benchmark rate unchanged at 1.00% on July 31, 2026 – no further rate move
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 14. July 2026
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Predicted for 31. July 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
The BoJ raised its benchmark rate by 25bp to 1.00% on June 16, 2026 – the highest level since 1995 (7-1 vote). For the July meeting (July 30–31), market consensus expects a hold: InvestingLive confirms 'BoJ set to keep rates unchanged at July meeting'; Bloomberg Survey implies ~85% hold probability. The next hike to 1.25% is priced in no earlier than Q4 2026. USD/JPY at approx. 162 JPY – no acute intervention pressure. This prediction is consistent with the open platform forecast 'BoJ at ≥1.25% by Dec 31, 2026' (BoJ can hold in July and hike later).
Data basis for this prediction
- BoJ hikes to 1,00% on June 16, 2026 – CNBC / BoJ press release k260616a
- BoJ July meeting: rates unchanged expected, tightening guidance maintained – InvestingLive, Juli 2026
- USD/JPY 13.07.2026: 162,41 JPY – exchange-rates.org / MTFX
- BoJ Meeting Calendar July 30–31, 2026 – financecalendar.com / mnimarkets.com
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
Die BoJ hielt den Leitzins am 31. Juli 2026 exakt bei 1,00 % – Abstimmung 8:1 (einziger Gegenstimme: Board-Mitglied Hajime Takata, der eine Anhebung auf 1,25 % forderte). Alle 52 von Bloomberg befragten Ökonomen hatten ein Halten erwartet. Quellen: Bloomberg ('Bank of Japan Holds Interest Rate Steady at 1% as Expected', 2026-07-31), Japan Times ('BOJ keeps rates unchanged amid speculation of yen intervention', 2026-07-31), offizielles BoJ-Statement (boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260731a.pdf).
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The DAX closed at 25,562 points on September 9, 2026. A gain of +1.7% is required by month-end. Headwinds: ECB rate hike to 2.50% (September 10), 53% FOMC hike probability (September 16), persistently high oil prices (~$101/barrel Brent) weigh on energy-intensive DAX heavyweights. Tailwinds: strong SAP cloud growth expected, robust US demand, EUR/USD at 1.1644 benefits exporters. Implied 30-day volatility (VDAX): ~16%, corresponding to a σ range of roughly ±5.5% by month-end — the 26,000 level falls within the central distribution.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Polymarket shows a 53% probability for a 25 basis point hike as of September 10, 2026. US Core CPI August 2026 (release September 11) is expected by market consensus to be above 3.0% YoY. The ECB raised its deposit rate by 25 bps to 2.50% on September 10, 2026 – an inflation-fighting signal that provides cover for the Fed. Against a hike: a mild slowdown in US industrial output. CME FedWatch also shows ~53% probability for a hike.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Bitcoin at $78,136 (September 9, 2026). Kalshi markets assign ~83% probability of BTC touching $100,000 at any point in 2026. Polymarket gives BTC 68% odds to close above $90,000 by year-end. A year-end close above $100,000 (not just a touch) is more demanding: median year-end contract estimates imply ~$81,000. Arguments for >$100k close: historical Q4 seasonality (+49% in Q4 2024, +56% in Q4 2023), ETF inflows, institutional demand. Headwinds: active Fed hiking cycle (~3.75% current funds rate), 10yr yield at 4.86%.