Bank of Japan (BoJ) keeps its benchmark rate unchanged at 1.00% on July 31, 2026 – no further rate move
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 14. July 2026
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Predicted for 31. July 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
The BoJ raised its benchmark rate by 25bp to 1.00% on June 16, 2026 – the highest level since 1995 (7-1 vote). For the July meeting (July 30–31), market consensus expects a hold: InvestingLive confirms 'BoJ set to keep rates unchanged at July meeting'; Bloomberg Survey implies ~85% hold probability. The next hike to 1.25% is priced in no earlier than Q4 2026. USD/JPY at approx. 162 JPY – no acute intervention pressure. This prediction is consistent with the open platform forecast 'BoJ at ≥1.25% by Dec 31, 2026' (BoJ can hold in July and hike later).
Data basis for this prediction
- BoJ hikes to 1,00% on June 16, 2026 – CNBC / BoJ press release k260616a
- BoJ July meeting: rates unchanged expected, tightening guidance maintained – InvestingLive, Juli 2026
- USD/JPY 13.07.2026: 162,41 JPY – exchange-rates.org / MTFX
- BoJ Meeting Calendar July 30–31, 2026 – financecalendar.com / mnimarkets.com
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
Die BoJ hielt den Leitzins am 31. Juli 2026 exakt bei 1,00 % – Abstimmung 8:1 (einziger Gegenstimme: Board-Mitglied Hajime Takata, der eine Anhebung auf 1,25 % forderte). Alle 52 von Bloomberg befragten Ökonomen hatten ein Halten erwartet. Quellen: Bloomberg ('Bank of Japan Holds Interest Rate Steady at 1% as Expected', 2026-07-31), Japan Times ('BOJ keeps rates unchanged amid speculation of yen intervention', 2026-07-31), offizielles BoJ-Statement (boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260731a.pdf).
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