📈 Economy
· Next Week
Bank of Japan holds policy rate unchanged at 1.00% at July 31, 2026 meeting (confirmed by BoJ press release)
Probability
68%
BoJ raised policy rate to 1.00% in June 2026 – highest since 1995 (7:1 vote, CNBC June 16, 2026). A pause at the July 30–31 meeting is highly probable: BoJ historically waits multiple sessions between hikes to assess impact. Weak yen does argue for further tightening, but global uncertainties (Brent ~$100, European recession fears) urge caution. Kalshi futures imply ~68% for no change. Consistent with open prediction 'USD/JPY above 160 on July 31' — BoJ pause supports weak yen.
Data basis for this prediction
- CNBC: BoJ raises rate to 1.0%, June 16, 2026
- Investing.com: BoJ meeting dates July 30–31, 2026
- Kalshi: BoJ rate hold July 2026, ~68% implied
- fxleaders.com: JPY macro context July 24, 2026
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
Die BoJ hielt den Leitzins am 31. Juli 2026 wie vorhergesagt unverändert bei 1,00 %. Die Entscheidung fiel mit 8:1-Stimmen (ein Mitglied votierte für eine Anhebung auf 1,25 %). Quellen: Bloomberg ("Bank of Japan Holds Interest Rate Steady at 1% as Expected", 31.07.2026), Focus Economics, Babypips sowie japanischsprachige Berichterstattung (smart-moneylife.jp, Nikkei). Die Begründung – Wartezeit nach der Juni-Anhebung, um deren Wirkung abzuschätzen – traf exakt zu.