Bank of Japan keeps its policy rate unchanged at 1.00% on 31 July 2026
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 17. July 2026
·
Predicted for 31. July 2026
·
Based on: Historical Cycle
The BoJ raised its policy rate to 1.00% on 16 June 2026 (highest since 1995). The next meeting is on 30–31 July 2026. Arguments against a further hike: (1) Sangiin election on 20 July — LDP+Komeito expected to lose majority (open prediction), raising political pressure on BoJ; (2) Nikkei closed on 16 July at 66,835 (–2.79%) — market stress; (3) JPY appreciation risk from further hikes weighs on Japanese export sector; (4) BoJ typically waits 2–3 meetings between hikes. Arguments for a hike: inflation above BoJ target and USD/JPY pressure. Bloomberg consensus: ~65% probability of hold. Conservative discount for political uncertainty post-Sangiin.
Data basis for this prediction
- BoJ Leitzinsentscheid 16.06.2026: +25 BP auf 1,00 % (BoJ / Investing.com, Juni 2026)
- Nikkei 225 Schlussstand 16.07.2026: 66.835 (–2,79 %) (Trading Economics / Yahoo Finance)
- Offene Plattform-Vorhersage: LDP+Komeito verliert Mehrheit im Sangiin (20.07.2026)
- BoJ Meeting Juli 2026: 30.–31. Juli 2026 (Bank of Japan offizielle Website)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
Die Bank of Japan hat am 31. Juli 2026 die Leitzinsen tatsächlich unverändert bei 1,00 % belassen. Die Entscheidung fiel mit 8:1 Stimmen und entsprach dem Konsens aller 52 von Bloomberg befragten Ökonomen. Die BoJ begründete die Pause mit der Notwendigkeit, die Auswirkungen der Juni-Anhebung auf Wirtschaft und Preise zu bewerten. Quellen: Bloomberg (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-31/bank-of-japan-holds-interest-rate-steady-at-1-as-expected), Nikkei (https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUB310PN0R30C26A7000000/), Focus Economics (https://www.focus-economics.com/countries/japan/news/monetary-policy/japan-central-bank-meeting-31-07-2026-bank-of-japan-holds-rates-in-july/).
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Take-Two Interactive reports Q2 FY2027 (July–September 2026) results on November 9 after market close. Estimated analyst consensus: approx. -$0.45 EPS (heavy investment cycle around GTA VI and other AAA titles). TTWO has beaten consensus in 6 of the last 8 quarters; strong Recurrent Consumer Spending base (mobile, NBA 2K, GTA Online) consistently delivers positive surprises on cost discipline. Report date confirmed by TipRanks Earnings Calendar (as of Nov 8, 2026). Verification by TTWO Investor Relations or Bloomberg by November 10, 2026, 10:00 ET.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Constellation Energy reports Q3-FY2026 tomorrow (November 9, 2026) before market open. TradingView and Gurufocus put the EPS consensus at $3.90/share, with revenue consensus at $9.23B. CEG has beaten estimates in 7 of the last 8 quarters — an 87.5% historical beat rate. Driver: Structurally rising nuclear power demand for AI data centers (e.g., Microsoft contracts) boosts reactor utilization and secures stable cash flows. Risk: Stock fell ~9% post-midterm results, reflecting repriced regulatory uncertainty that could overshadow near-term operational strength. Strong fundamentals and consistent beat history nevertheless support another consensus beat.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Walmart has beaten EPS estimates for four consecutive quarters. The official consensus is $0.64/share — identical to the top of management guidance ($0.62–$0.64). Analysts average $0.72 (range $0.70–$0.73), anticipating another structural beat. Drivers: Robust US consumer (October CPI ~3.5–3.7%; September retail sales +0.8% MoM), ongoing grocery market share gains, and strong e-commerce and advertising growth. Risk: Management lowered full-year guidance after Q2; macro headwinds from elevated prices could compress volume mixes. The consistent beat history and structural tailwinds prevail.