Bank of England (MPC) holds the base rate unchanged at 3.75% on September 17, 2026 (confirmed by BoE press release or Bloomberg by September 17, 2026)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 13. September 2026
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Predicted for 17. September 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
The MPC meets on September 17, 2026. The current base rate is 3.75%, implied by the open Cassandra prediction of a BoE hike to 4.00% only on November 5, 2026. The ECB raised to 2.65% in September 2026; the FOMC decides on September 16–17 with 59% probability (Fed Funds futures, September 13, 2026) to hike to 3.75–4.00%. The MPC historically follows Fed cycles with a lag and favors a data-dependent pause given subdued UK growth (BoE forecast: 0.9% for 2026). The September decision is accompanied by the August Monetary Policy Report, which already signaled a more moderate tone. No Polymarket market found; own estimate: 65%.
Data basis for this prediction
- BoE MPC Sitzungskalender 2026: Septembersitzung am 17. September 2026 (bankofengland.co.uk, Stand September 2026)
- FOMC September 2026: 59 % Marktwahrscheinlichkeit für +25 bp Anhebung auf 3,75–4,00 % (FedRateCalc.com / CNBC, Stand 13. September 2026)
- EZB-Entscheid September 2026: Einlagensatz auf 2,65 % angehoben, dritte Erhöhung bis Dezember 2026 eingepreist (FXStreet, 10. September 2026)
- Offene Cassandra-Vorhersage: BoE hebt Leitzins am 5. November 2026 von 3,75 % auf 4,00 % an – impliziert September-Hold
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Identische Prediction wie 2381. BoE hielt bei 3,75 %. Quelle: bankofengland.co.uk.
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