Bank of England (BoE) raises base rate on November 5, 2026, by 25 basis points to 4.00% (confirmed by BoE press release by November 5, 2026)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 18. September 2026
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Predicted for 5. November 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
The BoE base rate stands at 3.75% after the last MPC meeting. For the November 5, 2026 meeting, market pricing implies ~87% probability of a 25 bp hike to 4.00% (Robinhood Prediction Markets, September 18, 2026 — calibration anchor). OIS data implies +17 bp and ~69%. A conservative anchor of 72% is used: deliberate downward deviation from the Robinhood figure to account for UK data-path risk through November (October CPI, GDP growth). The BoE is prone to data-dependent surprises; a hold cannot be excluded.
Data basis for this prediction
- Robinhood Prediction Markets: BoE November 2026 Ratsentscheid — 87,3 % für +25 bp auf 4,00 % (Stand 18.09.2026)
- OIS-Markt (Overnight Index Swaps): ~69 % Wahrscheinlichkeit für +25 bp BoE November; impliziert +17 bp (Bloomberg, 18.09.2026)
- BoE aktueller Leitzins: 3,75 % nach letzter MPC-Sitzung (bankofengland.co.uk, September 2026)
- BoE MPC-Sitzungskalender 2026: nächste Entscheidung 5. November 2026 (bankofengland.co.uk)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] BoE hob den Leitzins am 5. November 2026 um 25 bp auf 4,00 % an (Quelle: Bloomberg/BoE-Pressemitteilung)
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