📈 Economy
· Next Week
Bank of England (BoE) holds Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75% on July 30, 2026 (confirmed by MPC press release)
Probability
80%
BoE MPC voted 7-2 to hold at 3.75% in June 2026, with two members dissenting for a hike to 4.00%. UK CPI: ~2.8%; services inflation: stubborn 3.7%. OIS markets imply ~80% probability of a hold on July 30 per economist consensus. Since the US-Iran ceasefire (June 2026), energy prices eased slightly, but the Hormuz crisis keeps oil elevated and creates indirect inflation pressure. Reuters economist poll: majority expect hold for rest of 2026, ~40% see at least one hike. A rate cut to 3.50% appears ruled out given the data. Base consensus: Hold.
Data basis for this prediction
- BoE MPC Juni 2026: Votum 7:2 Hold bei 3,75% (bankofengland.co.uk)
- UK Services-Inflation 3,7%; CPI 2,8% (HomeOwners Alliance / hoa.org.uk, Juli 2026)
- Reuters-Umfrage: Mehrheit Hold; ~40% sehen Hike-Risiko (hoa.org.uk, Juli 2026)
- BoE Nächste MPC-Sitzung: 30. Juli 2026 (financecalendar.com / equalsmoney.com)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
Die BoE-MPC hielt den Bank Rate am 30. Juli 2026 tatsächlich bei 3,75% – exakt wie vorhergesagt. Quelle: Offizielle BoE-Pressemitteilung (bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/july-2026) und IG-Marktbericht (ig.com, 31.07.2026). Der Abstimmungssplit verschob sich leicht: 6:3 statt der erwarteten 7:2 – ein dritter Dissident (Huw Pill) trat zur Minderheit hinzu, die eine Anhebung auf 4,00% forderte (Pill, Greene, Mann). CPI lag bei 2,6% (vs. ~2,8% in der Prognose), was die Hold-Entscheidung stützte. Der Kern der Vorhersage – Hold bei 3,75% – trat vollständig ein.