📈 Economy · Next Month

Bank of England holds its base rate unchanged at 3.75% on 30 July 2026

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 16. July 2026 · Predicted for 30. July 2026 · Based on: Ongoing Event

Probability

63%

Current market pricing: ~60% probability of hold at 3.75%, with ~40% of traders pricing in at least one hike. UK inflation remains above 2.5% YoY per existing Cassandra open prediction (June 2026), keeping the BoE under inflation pressure. At the same time, the labour market is softening slightly, arguing against an immediate hike. The BoE is likely to wait for additional Q3 data before acting. No direct Polymarket anchor; own estimate based on OIS forward market data.

Data basis for this prediction

Bank of England Leitzins: 3,75%, nächste MPC-Entscheidung 30. Juli 2026 (hoa.org.uk/news, Stand 16.07.2026)
Markt-Pricing BoE Juli 2026: ~60% Halten, ~40% Erhöhung (OIS-Terminmarktdaten, Stand 16.07.2026)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Hit

Die Bank of England hat am 30. Juli 2026 den Leitzins wie vorhergesagt unverändert bei 3,75% belassen. Der MPC stimmte mit 6:3 für eine Beibehaltung, wobei drei Mitglieder (Huw Pill, Megan Greene, Catherine Mann) eine Erhöhung auf 4% forderten – mehr Gegenstimmen als im Juni, was die hawkishe Dynamik der Vorhersage bestätigt. Die BoE verwies auf anhaltend erhöhte Energiepreise infolge geopolitischer Spannungen (Naher Osten) und prognostizierte CPI-Inflation von ~3,2% im Q4 2026, also deutlich über 2% – exakt der in der Vorhersage genannte Inflationsdruck. Quellen: bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/july-2026, fortune.com (30.07.2026)

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