📈 Economy · Next Week

Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) reports Q3-FY2026 earnings per share (EPS) above $1.15 — earnings release October 14, 2026 before market open (confirmed by BAC Investor Relations or Bloomberg by October 14, 2026)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 8. October 2026 · Predicted for 14. October 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

66%

Analyst consensus for BAC Q3-FY2026 EPS is $1.16–$1.17 (Benzinga/Yahoo Finance, as of Oct 8, 2026), up from $1.06 in Q3 2025 (+10% YoY). The US 10-year Treasury yield at ~5.32–5.35% (Oct 8, 2026) meaningfully supports Bank of America's net interest margin. Nasdaq 100 closed above 31,100 on Oct 8, 2026, benefiting investment banking and trading revenues. No Polymarket market available. My threshold of $1.15 sits 1–2 cents below consensus and implies a wide margin of error; the probability of missing the target remains limited.

Data basis for this prediction

Benzinga/Yahoo Finance Konsens BAC Q3 FY2026 EPS: ~1,16–1,17 USD (Stand 8.10.2026)
TradingView BAC Q3'26 Revenue Estimate: ~30,65 Mrd. USD (Stand 8.10.2026)
US 10-Jahres-Treasury-Rendite 8.10.2026: ~5,32–5,35 % (CNBC/Bloomberg)
Nasdaq 100 Schlussstand 8.10.2026: über 31.100 Punkte (Cassandra-Bestandsvorhersage bestätigt)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Miss

Bank of America meldete am 14. Oktober 2026 Q3-FY2026-Ergebnisse. Das bereinigte EPS (adjusted, ohne Sonderbelastung) lag bei 1,08 USD – deutlich unter der Schwelle von 1,15 USD. Das GAAP-EPS (reported) betrug sogar nur 0,91 USD, da eine regulatorische Vergleichszahlung von 1,2 Mrd. USD (AML/Compliance-Verfahren) das EPS um 0,17 USD belastete. Selbst auf bereinigter Basis verfehlte BAC die eigene Konsensprognose von ~1,10 USD (deutlich niedriger als die in der Vorhersage genannten 1,16–1,17 USD). Ursachen der Zielverfehlung: (1) unerwartete 1,2 Mrd. USD Strafzahlung, (2) Umsatzverfehlung gegenüber Konsens, (3) Konsens war bereits zur Berichtszeit niedriger als in der Vorhersage unterstellt. Quellen: CNBC (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/14/bank-of-america-bac-q3-2026-earnings.html), MarketBeat (https://www.marketbeat.com/earnings/reports/2026-10-14-bank-of-america-co-stock/), Investing.com (https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-bank-of-america-q3-2026-misses-estimates-as-stock-falls-93CH-4949584)

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