ASML Holding N.V.: Net Bookings in Q3 FY2026 exceed EUR 6.5 billion (earnings release approx. October 14, 2026, confirmed by ASML Investor Relations or Bloomberg by October 15, 2026)
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 23. September 2026
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Predicted for 14. October 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
ASML reported Q2 2026 total net sales of €9.3B at 54% gross margin and raised its full-year 2026 guidance a second time to €43–45B. For Q3 2026, it guides total net sales of €11.0–12.0B at 55–57% gross margin. Critically, ASML announced plans to expand its Low-NA EUV capacity by 30% to ~85 units for 2027, and is investigating a further 30% increase for 2028 — a clear signal of very strong order backlog. Net Bookings disappointed at €3.9B in Q4 2024 but have since recovered. With revenue guidance of €11–12B for Q3 2026 and a capacity expansion strategy implying substantial backlog coverage, a reading above €6.5B is plausible. No direct Polymarket market; analyst consensus for Q3 2026 Net Bookings estimated at €6–9B (Bloomberg approximation).
Data basis for this prediction
- ASML Pressemitteilung Q2 2026: Umsatz €9,3 Mrd, Bruttomarge 54 %, Jahresguidance €43–45 Mrd (15. Juli 2026)
- ASML Q3 2026 Umsatzguidance: €11,0–12,0 Mrd, Bruttomarge 55–57 % (ASML IR, 15. Juli 2026)
- ASML Kapazitätserweiterung: +30 % Low-NA-EUV für 2027 auf ca. 85 Systeme, +30 % für 2028 in Prüfung (Pressemitteilung Juli 2026)
- Qz.com: 'ASML raises 2026 guidance second time, beats Q2 earnings' (Stand 15. Juli 2026)
Verdict: Miss
ASML hat die quartalsweise Veröffentlichung von Net Bookings ab 2026 offiziell eingestellt (angekündigt auf dem Investor Day November 2024). Der Q3-2026-Quartalsbericht vom 14. Oktober 2026 enthält keine Net-Bookings-Zahl. Der letzte offiziell gemeldete Quartals-Bookings-Wert war €13,2 Mrd. für Q4 2025. Als einziger Proxy verfügbar ist der Anstieg der langfristigen Contract Liabilities (Kundenvorauszahlungen): von €3,6 Mrd. auf €9,3 Mrd. im Q3 2026, also ein Zuwachs von ca. €5,7 Mrd. – damit unter dem Schwellenwert von €6,5 Mrd. Die Vorhersage scheitert auf zwei Ebenen: (1) Die Verifikationsbedingung 'bestätigt durch ASML Investor Relations oder Bloomberg' ist strukturell nicht erfüllbar, da ASML die Metrik abgeschafft hat; (2) der verfügbare Proxy liegt mit ~€5,7 Mrd. unterhalb des Zielwerts. Quellen: ASML Q3 2026 Press Release (investor.asml.com, 14.10.2026), SEC Form 6-K FY2026 (sec.gov), GlobeNewswire (14.10.2026), Yahoo Finance / Leandro@Invesquotes (Contract-Liabilities-Triangulation).
💻 Technology
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Applied Materials has beaten the EPS consensus in all four of its last reported quarters, with an average earnings surprise of +3.5%. The company's own Q4 guidance is $3.82–$4.22 per share; consensus at $4.06 sits near the midpoint, reflecting classic conservative management framing. Revenue is estimated at $10.30B (+51% YoY) — TSMC and Samsung have not pulled back H2 2026 capex plans. No Polymarket market directly available; a 100% beat streak over 4 quarters with a positive guidance range implies 70–75% probability. Risk: supply chain delays or expanded US export controls on advanced chips could force a Q5 inventory build.
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PLTR closed at $175.40 on November 4, 2026 (after-hours: $170.88, -2.58%; intraday high: $176.54; 52-week high: $212.94). Palantir clearly beat Q3-FY2026 EPS consensus: total revenue $2.313B, US Commercial revenue +148% YoY to $984M. The $185 threshold is +5.5% above the closing price or +8.3% above after-hours levels. Typical post-earnings 'sell the news' may weigh short-term, but the 52-week high of $212.94 confirms the level is reachable. NVIDIA earnings on November 18, 2026 could serve as a sector-wide catalyst. No direct Polymarket equivalent; own estimate: ~42%.
💻 Technology
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CBRS trades at $109.18 (October 30, 2026) — already 61% below its all-time high of $279.72. The final and largest lockup expiration is scheduled for November 10, 2026: approximately 19.4 million shares are unlocked (of three tranches of 19.4M each). Prior lockup tranches have consistently weighed on the stock. Insiders have sold ~$394.6M in shares since the May 2026 IPO — zero insider purchases. A Culper Research short-seller report has triggered multiple investigations. A close below $100 requires a ~8.4% decline — plausible given the expected supply pressure on expiration day.