ASML Holding N.V. (NASDAQ: ASML) reports Q3-FY2026 total net sales above EUR 10.0 billion (release approx. 15 October 2026)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 22. September 2026
·
Predicted for 15. October 2026
·
Based on: Speculative
ASML, as sole supplier of EUV lithography tools, is directly exposed to the AI chip boom. Q3 2024 revenue: EUR 7.47 bn. TSMC, Samsung and Intel capacity expansions for AI chips (N2, 18A) have strongly driven EUV orders since 2025. Bloomberg/Refinitiv analyst consensus estimates (as of 2025) projected full-year 2026 revenue of EUR 38–42 bn; at even distribution Q3 would contribute ~EUR 9.5–10.5 bn. The existing Cassandra forecast (TSMC Q3 2026 >USD 46 bn) implies substantial EUV demand. No explicit Polymarket/Kalshi ASML Q3 market found.
Data basis for this prediction
- ASML Q3 2024 Umsatz: 7,47 Mrd. EUR – ASML Investor Relations (Oktober 2024)
- ASML 2026 Consensus: Jahresumsatz ~38–42 Mrd. EUR (Bloomberg/Refinitiv, Stand 2025)
- Hyperscaler KI-Capex 2026: >500 Mrd. USD p.a. (IDC, 2025) – treibt EUV-Nachfrage
- TSMC Q3-2026-Cassandra-Vorhersage: >46 Mrd. USD (impliziert hohe ASML-Auslastung)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] ASML Q3 2026 (14. Oktober): Gesamtumsatz €11,7 Mrd. – über der Schwelle von 10,0 Mrd. EUR. Quelle: globenewswire.com, investor.asml.com.
💻 Technology
✦ AI
Applied Materials has beaten the EPS consensus in all four of its last reported quarters, with an average earnings surprise of +3.5%. The company's own Q4 guidance is $3.82–$4.22 per share; consensus at $4.06 sits near the midpoint, reflecting classic conservative management framing. Revenue is estimated at $10.30B (+51% YoY) — TSMC and Samsung have not pulled back H2 2026 capex plans. No Polymarket market directly available; a 100% beat streak over 4 quarters with a positive guidance range implies 70–75% probability. Risk: supply chain delays or expanded US export controls on advanced chips could force a Q5 inventory build.
💻 Technology
✦ AI
PLTR closed at $175.40 on November 4, 2026 (after-hours: $170.88, -2.58%; intraday high: $176.54; 52-week high: $212.94). Palantir clearly beat Q3-FY2026 EPS consensus: total revenue $2.313B, US Commercial revenue +148% YoY to $984M. The $185 threshold is +5.5% above the closing price or +8.3% above after-hours levels. Typical post-earnings 'sell the news' may weigh short-term, but the 52-week high of $212.94 confirms the level is reachable. NVIDIA earnings on November 18, 2026 could serve as a sector-wide catalyst. No direct Polymarket equivalent; own estimate: ~42%.
💻 Technology
✦ AI
CBRS trades at $109.18 (October 30, 2026) — already 61% below its all-time high of $279.72. The final and largest lockup expiration is scheduled for November 10, 2026: approximately 19.4 million shares are unlocked (of three tranches of 19.4M each). Prior lockup tranches have consistently weighed on the stock. Insiders have sold ~$394.6M in shares since the May 2026 IPO — zero insider purchases. A Culper Research short-seller report has triggered multiple investigations. A close below $100 requires a ~8.4% decline — plausible given the expected supply pressure on expiration day.