ASML Holding N.V. (NASDAQ: ASML) reports Q2 2026 net sales above €8.7 billion and confirms raised FY2026 guidance of €36–40 billion (July 15, 2026)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 14. July 2026
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Predicted for 15. July 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
ASML guided Q2 2026 net sales at €8.4–9.0B (midpoint €8.7B); analyst consensus sits near €8.7–8.8B. Q1 2026 actual net sales were €8.8B — setting a realistic benchmark for Q2. Order backlog exceeds €40B; FY2026 guidance was most recently raised to €36–40B. Drivers: AI training demand from NVIDIA and hyperscalers compels TSMC, Samsung, and Intel to accelerate EUV investment. ASML holds a monopoly on High-NA EUV systems. TSMC's own Q2 report (July 16) is expected to show record revenue >$39.5B, implicitly confirming ASML delivery momentum.
Data basis for this prediction
- ASML Q1-2026 Ergebnis: Nettoumsatz 8,8 Mrd. EUR, Guidance Q2 8,4–9,0 Mrd. EUR (ASML Pressemitteilung, April 2026)
- ASML FY2026-Guidance angehoben auf 36–40 Mrd. EUR (ASML SEC Form 6-K, April 2026)
- ASML Q2-2026 Earnings Date: 15. Juli 2026 (Tickeron Q2-2026 Earnings Preview)
- TSMC Q2-2026 Revenue Konsens >39,5 Mrd. USD – impliziert starke ASML-Nachfrage (Reuters, Juli 2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] ASML meldete Q2 2026 Umsatz von €9,33 Mrd. (> €8,7 Mrd.) und hob die FY2026-Prognose auf €43–45 Mrd. an (deutlich über den zuvor erhöhten €36–40 Mrd.). (Quellen: ASML Pressemitteilung, stocktitan.net)
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The DAX closed at 25,562 points on September 9, 2026. A gain of +1.7% is required by month-end. Headwinds: ECB rate hike to 2.50% (September 10), 53% FOMC hike probability (September 16), persistently high oil prices (~$101/barrel Brent) weigh on energy-intensive DAX heavyweights. Tailwinds: strong SAP cloud growth expected, robust US demand, EUR/USD at 1.1644 benefits exporters. Implied 30-day volatility (VDAX): ~16%, corresponding to a σ range of roughly ±5.5% by month-end — the 26,000 level falls within the central distribution.
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Polymarket shows a 53% probability for a 25 basis point hike as of September 10, 2026. US Core CPI August 2026 (release September 11) is expected by market consensus to be above 3.0% YoY. The ECB raised its deposit rate by 25 bps to 2.50% on September 10, 2026 – an inflation-fighting signal that provides cover for the Fed. Against a hike: a mild slowdown in US industrial output. CME FedWatch also shows ~53% probability for a hike.
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Bitcoin at $78,136 (September 9, 2026). Kalshi markets assign ~83% probability of BTC touching $100,000 at any point in 2026. Polymarket gives BTC 68% odds to close above $90,000 by year-end. A year-end close above $100,000 (not just a touch) is more demanding: median year-end contract estimates imply ~$81,000. Arguments for >$100k close: historical Q4 seasonality (+49% in Q4 2024, +56% in Q4 2023), ETF inflows, institutional demand. Headwinds: active Fed hiking cycle (~3.75% current funds rate), 10yr yield at 4.86%.