💻 Technology · Next Month

ASML Holding N.V. (AMS: ASML) reports Q3 FY2026 net revenue growth of more than 20% year-over-year (report due ca. October 15, 2026, confirmed via ASML IR or Bloomberg by October 16, 2026)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 15. September 2026 · Predicted for 15. October 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

63%

ASML is the global monopolist for EUV lithography systems – without ASML, TSMC, Samsung, and Intel cannot manufacture chips below 7nm. AI-driven chip demand has sharply accelerated semiconductor capex cycles in 2025/26: TSMC reports >40% YoY growth in Q3 2026 (open Cassandra prediction), and NVIDIA projects >$110B net revenue for August–October 2026. This expansion wave forces major foundries into higher ASML orders. In Q3 2025, after an order miss (~€7.5B revenue), ASML set a low comparison base; >20% growth on that base looks realistic given the current AI chip boom. No specific Polymarket/Kalshi market for ASML earnings was identified. The US-Iran war further boosts defense and semiconductor sovereignty investments in Europe and the US.

Data basis for this prediction

TSMC Q3 2026: >40 % YoY Umsatzwachstum erwartet (offene Cassandra-Vorhersage; Bloomberg-Analyst-Consensus, Sept. 2026)
NVIDIA FY2027 Q3 (Aug–Okt 2026): >110 Mrd. USD Nettoumsatz-Prognose (offene Cassandra-Vorhersage; NVIDIA IR)
ASML Q3 2025 Nettoumsatz: ~7,5 Mrd. EUR nach Ordermiss – niedrige Vergleichsbasis (ASML Investor Relations, Okt. 2025)
US-CPI Aug. 2026: Headline +3,4 % YoY; Energie +2,1 % MoM – Halbleiter-Capex ungebremst (BLS, 11.09.2026)

Verdict: Hit

[Vorzeitig entschieden] ASML veröffentlichte am 14. Oktober 2026 Q3-2026-Ergebnisse: Nettoumsatz €11,7 Mrd., +55,2 % YoY (vs. €7,52 Mrd. in Q3 2025) – weit über der Schwelle von 20 %. Quelle: globenewswire.com 'ASML reports €11.7 billion total net sales'.

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