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💻 Technology · Tomorrow

Apple 'Surprise and Shine' event (9 September 2026): Apple officially announces first foldable iPhone – the 'iPhone Ultra' (confirmed by Apple press release or The Verge by 9 September 2026)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 8. September 2026 · Predicted for 9. September 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle
Probability
82%

MacRumors reported on 27 August 2026 that six products are confirmed for the September event, including the iPhone Ultra with a 5.5" outer and 7.8" inner display. Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo confirmed mass production since Q2 2026; Mark Gurman (Bloomberg) pinned the launch to H2 2026. The foldable iPhone would be the first form-factor change to the iPhone lineup since 2007. Existing open predictions cover the iPhone 18 Pro (A20 Pro chip, aperture ring), Apple Watch Series 11, Apple Watch Ultra 4 and AirPods Pro 3 – the iPhone Ultra is a separate new product. No direct prediction market; analyst consensus supports approximately 82% probability.

Data basis for this prediction
  • MacRumors: Apple-Event 9. September 2026 – 6 Produkte angekündigt, darunter iPhone Ultra Foldable (27. August 2026)
  • Ming-Chi Kuo: Faltbares iPhone in Massenproduktion seit Q2 2026 (Substack, August 2026)
  • Bloomberg/Mark Gurman: iPhone Ultra Foldable Launch H2 2026 bestätigt
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Apple stellte zwar ein faltbares iPhone vor, aber unter dem Namen 'iPhone Duo' (nicht 'iPhone Ultra'). Der Produktname ist falsch. Bestätigt durch Bloomberg, Tom's Guide, Gizmodo Live Blog.
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Applied Materials Inc. (NASDAQ: AMAT) beats Q4 FY2026 EPS consensus of $4.06 per share — earnings report November 12, 2026 after market close (confirmed by Applied Materials Investor Relations or Bloomberg by November 13, 2026, 10:00 AM ET)

Applied Materials has beaten the EPS consensus in all four of its last reported quarters, with an average earnings surprise of +3.5%. The company's own Q4 guidance is $3.82–$4.22 per share; consensus at $4.06 sits near the midpoint, reflecting classic conservative management framing. Revenue is estimated at $10.30B (+51% YoY) — TSMC and Samsung have not pulled back H2 2026 capex plans. No Polymarket market directly available; a 100% beat streak over 4 quarters with a positive guidance range implies 70–75% probability. Risk: supply chain delays or expanded US export controls on advanced chips could force a Q5 inventory build.

72%
Next Week · Predicted for 12. Nov 2026
💻 Technology ✦ AI

Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE: PLTR) closes above $185.00 per share on at least one trading day in November 2026 — confirmed by Nasdaq or Bloomberg by December 1, 2026

PLTR closed at $175.40 on November 4, 2026 (after-hours: $170.88, -2.58%; intraday high: $176.54; 52-week high: $212.94). Palantir clearly beat Q3-FY2026 EPS consensus: total revenue $2.313B, US Commercial revenue +148% YoY to $984M. The $185 threshold is +5.5% above the closing price or +8.3% above after-hours levels. Typical post-earnings 'sell the news' may weigh short-term, but the 52-week high of $212.94 confirms the level is reachable. NVIDIA earnings on November 18, 2026 could serve as a sector-wide catalyst. No direct Polymarket equivalent; own estimate: ~42%.

42%
Next Month · Predicted for 30. Nov 2026
💻 Technology ✦ AI

Cerebras Systems (NASDAQ: CBRS) closes below $100.00 per share on November 10, 2026 (confirmed by Nasdaq or Bloomberg by November 11, 2026)

CBRS trades at $109.18 (October 30, 2026) — already 61% below its all-time high of $279.72. The final and largest lockup expiration is scheduled for November 10, 2026: approximately 19.4 million shares are unlocked (of three tranches of 19.4M each). Prior lockup tranches have consistently weighed on the stock. Insiders have sold ~$394.6M in shares since the May 2026 IPO — zero insider purchases. A Culper Research short-seller report has triggered multiple investigations. A close below $100 requires a ~8.4% decline — plausible given the expected supply pressure on expiration day.

62%
Next Week · Predicted for 10. Nov 2026