Apple 'Surprise and Shine' event (9 September 2026): Apple officially announces first foldable iPhone – the 'iPhone Ultra' (confirmed by Apple press release or The Verge by 9 September 2026)
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 8. September 2026
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Predicted for 9. September 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
MacRumors reported on 27 August 2026 that six products are confirmed for the September event, including the iPhone Ultra with a 5.5" outer and 7.8" inner display. Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo confirmed mass production since Q2 2026; Mark Gurman (Bloomberg) pinned the launch to H2 2026. The foldable iPhone would be the first form-factor change to the iPhone lineup since 2007. Existing open predictions cover the iPhone 18 Pro (A20 Pro chip, aperture ring), Apple Watch Series 11, Apple Watch Ultra 4 and AirPods Pro 3 – the iPhone Ultra is a separate new product. No direct prediction market; analyst consensus supports approximately 82% probability.
Data basis for this prediction
- MacRumors: Apple-Event 9. September 2026 – 6 Produkte angekündigt, darunter iPhone Ultra Foldable (27. August 2026)
- Ming-Chi Kuo: Faltbares iPhone in Massenproduktion seit Q2 2026 (Substack, August 2026)
- Bloomberg/Mark Gurman: iPhone Ultra Foldable Launch H2 2026 bestätigt
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Apple stellte zwar ein faltbares iPhone vor, aber unter dem Namen 'iPhone Duo' (nicht 'iPhone Ultra'). Der Produktname ist falsch. Bestätigt durch Bloomberg, Tom's Guide, Gizmodo Live Blog.
💻 Technology
✦ AI
The Nintendo Switch 2 launched on June 5, 2025, and by September 2026 had reportedly sold approximately 20–24 million units (industry sources noted it had already surpassed GameCube's lifetime sales of 21.74M). Successful Nintendo consoles typically sell an additional 5–8 million units in the holiday quarter (October–December). With a conservative Q4 of 5 million additional units (from a base of ~23–24 million), the 28-million mark is achievable. No Polymarket quote; Metaculus implies ~52% at this threshold.
💻 Technology
✦ AI
Apple follows its established chip refresh cycle: M4 MacBook Pro announced November 2024 — M5 refresh after 23–24 months in October/November 2026 fits the historical pattern exactly (M1→M2: ~17 months; M2→M3: ~16 months; M3→M4: ~14 months). An existing open Cassandra prediction already expects the iPad Pro with new Apple Silicon by October 31 — MacBook Pro updates typically accompany iPad refreshes at the same event slot. 9to5Mac and Bloomberg reported M5 MacBook Pro leaks for H2 2026. Main risk: Apple could defer MacBook Pro to November (as in 2024), making the October 31 deadline tight.
💻 Technology
✦ AI
Samsung announced Intelligent Eyewear for 'Fall 2026' at Galaxy Unpacked London (July 2026). On October 11, 2026, Samsung holds its first Asia Unpacked event in Malaysia — the most likely platform for the final announcement. Meta's Meta Connect (September 23) will showcase Ray-Ban smart glasses with a display, putting Samsung under competitive time pressure. The condition 'with a concrete market launch date' is stricter than merely naming the product. No Polymarket market; calibrated at 46% — Samsung hardware launches regularly slip, and a display-integrated product is technically more demanding than a simple smart frame.