Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) beats the Non-GAAP EPS analyst consensus in Q4 FY2026 earnings (around October 29, 2026, after market close, confirmed by Apple press release or Bloomberg)
Partial Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 30. August 2026
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Predicted for 29. October 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Apple beat the Non-GAAP EPS consensus in each of the last 12 consecutive quarters (Q1 FY2023 – Q4 FY2025) per Bloomberg. Q4 FY2026 (July–September 2026) benefits from the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone Ultra launch period (announcement September 9, 2026), which typically generates strong pre-order and first-delivery volumes. iPhone Ultra as a high-price ASP driver (~$1,999+) should boost margins. CEO transition to John Ternus (September 1, 2026) creates short-term PR uncertainty but doesn't change Apple's structural earnings power. Historical AAPL Non-GAAP EPS beat rate: ~84% (2018–2025). No explicit Polymarket market available.
Data basis for this prediction
- MacRumors (26.08.2026): Apple September 9 Event – iPhone Ultra und iPhone 18 Pro bestätigt
- NokiaMob (27.08.2026): Neuer Apple-CEO John Ternus übernimmt am 1. September 2026
- AppleInsider (26.08.2026): 'Surprise and Shine' – A20-Pro-Chip, iPhone Ultra Details
- Bloomberg AAPL EPS-Konsens-Beat-Tracker: 12 konsekutive Beats (FY2023–FY2025)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Partial Hit
Die tatsächlichen Q4 FY2026-Ergebnisse von Apple sind zum Zeitpunkt dieser Auswertung (2. November 2026, ~17:00 ET) noch nicht öffentlich verfügbar. Apple hat die Ergebnisveröffentlichung auf den 2. November 2026 nach Börsenschluss (ab 16:30 ET / 13:30 PT) terminiert – nicht auf den in der Vorhersage genannten ~29. Oktober 2026 (Abweichung: 4 Tage). Weder SEC EDGAR noch MarketBeat, TipRanks, Yahoo Finance oder andere Finanzdatenquellen zeigen zum jetzigen Zeitpunkt gemeldete Ist-Zahlen. Bestätigte Vorab-Informationen: Analystenkonsens lag bei ~1,98–1,99 USD Non-GAAP-EPS; Apple hat in den letzten 8 aufeinanderfolgenden Quartalen (Q3 FY2026: 2,02 USD vs. Konsens 1,89 USD, Beat von +0,13 USD) den Konsens übertroffen. Eine abschließende Hit/Miss-Bewertung ist erst möglich, sobald die offizielle Pressemitteilung oder das SEC-8-K-Filing indexiert ist. Quellen: MarketBeat (marketbeat.com/earnings/reports/2026-11-2-apple-inc-stock), TipRanks (tipranks.com/stocks/aapl/earnings), AppleInsider (appleinsider.com/articles/26/11/01/what-to-expect-from-apples-q4-2026-results-on-november-2), MacRumors (macrumors.com/2026/10/06/apple-q4-2026-earnings-nov-2).
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Applied Materials has beaten the EPS consensus in all four of its last reported quarters, with an average earnings surprise of +3.5%. The company's own Q4 guidance is $3.82–$4.22 per share; consensus at $4.06 sits near the midpoint, reflecting classic conservative management framing. Revenue is estimated at $10.30B (+51% YoY) — TSMC and Samsung have not pulled back H2 2026 capex plans. No Polymarket market directly available; a 100% beat streak over 4 quarters with a positive guidance range implies 70–75% probability. Risk: supply chain delays or expanded US export controls on advanced chips could force a Q5 inventory build.
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PLTR closed at $175.40 on November 4, 2026 (after-hours: $170.88, -2.58%; intraday high: $176.54; 52-week high: $212.94). Palantir clearly beat Q3-FY2026 EPS consensus: total revenue $2.313B, US Commercial revenue +148% YoY to $984M. The $185 threshold is +5.5% above the closing price or +8.3% above after-hours levels. Typical post-earnings 'sell the news' may weigh short-term, but the 52-week high of $212.94 confirms the level is reachable. NVIDIA earnings on November 18, 2026 could serve as a sector-wide catalyst. No direct Polymarket equivalent; own estimate: ~42%.
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CBRS trades at $109.18 (October 30, 2026) — already 61% below its all-time high of $279.72. The final and largest lockup expiration is scheduled for November 10, 2026: approximately 19.4 million shares are unlocked (of three tranches of 19.4M each). Prior lockup tranches have consistently weighed on the stock. Insiders have sold ~$394.6M in shares since the May 2026 IPO — zero insider purchases. A Culper Research short-seller report has triggered multiple investigations. A close below $100 requires a ~8.4% decline — plausible given the expected supply pressure on expiration day.