Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) beats the adjusted Q3 FY2026 EPS consensus of approximately $1.89 per share at its earnings release on July 30, 2026
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 15. July 2026
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Predicted for 30. July 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Apple reports Q3 FY2026 results on July 30, 2026, after market close (quarter covering April–June 2026). Consensus EPS is approximately $1.89 (diluted, range $1.88–$1.93 depending on source). Apple has beaten EPS expectations in each of the last four quarters (historical beat rate: 4/4). In Q2 FY2026 (ending March 2026), Apple generated revenue of $111.2 billion (+17% YoY). For Q3, the company guides for 14–17% YoY revenue growth (revenue consensus: ~$108.9–$110.8 billion). Drivers: continued AI-driven iPhone upgrade cycle ('Apple Intelligence'), strong Services growth, and solid margins. No Polymarket market found for this event. Estimate based on historical beat frequency and growth momentum.
Data basis for this prediction
- 9to5Mac.com: 'Apple sets Q3 2026 earnings release for July 30' (2. Juli 2026) – EPS-Konsens ~$1,89
- AppleInsider.com: 'What to expect from Apple's Q3 2026 results on July 30' (2. Juli 2026): Umsatzkonsens ~$108,9 Mrd.
- Apple Inc. SEC Form 8-K Q2 FY2026 (28. März 2026): Revenue $111,2 Mrd. (+17 % YoY)
- Tickeron.com / TipRanks: Apple EPS-Beat-Historie – 4 aufeinanderfolgende Quartale übertroffen (Stand Juli 2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
Apple hat am 30. Juli 2026 die EPS-Erwartungen klar übertroffen. Der bereinigte EPS lag bei 1,91 USD (vs. Konsens 1,89 USD), der GAAP-EPS sogar bei 2,02 USD (+29 % YoY). Umsatz: 109,4 Mrd. USD (Konsens ~108,9 Mrd. USD). Quellen: 9to5Mac (https://9to5mac.com/2026/07/30/apple-reports-q3-2026-earnings-109-4-billion-in-revenue-up-16/), MacRumors (https://www.macrumors.com/2026/07/30/apple-3q-2026-earnings/), Yahoo Finance (https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/apple-q3-earnings-beat-estimates-151300909.html). Trotz des Beats fiel die Aktie nachbörslich ~6,65 %, da Investoren die künftige Guidance kritisch sahen – das ist für die Bewertung der Vorhersage (EPS-Beat) jedoch nicht relevant.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The DAX closed at 25,562 points on September 9, 2026. A gain of +1.7% is required by month-end. Headwinds: ECB rate hike to 2.50% (September 10), 53% FOMC hike probability (September 16), persistently high oil prices (~$101/barrel Brent) weigh on energy-intensive DAX heavyweights. Tailwinds: strong SAP cloud growth expected, robust US demand, EUR/USD at 1.1644 benefits exporters. Implied 30-day volatility (VDAX): ~16%, corresponding to a σ range of roughly ±5.5% by month-end — the 26,000 level falls within the central distribution.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Polymarket shows a 53% probability for a 25 basis point hike as of September 10, 2026. US Core CPI August 2026 (release September 11) is expected by market consensus to be above 3.0% YoY. The ECB raised its deposit rate by 25 bps to 2.50% on September 10, 2026 – an inflation-fighting signal that provides cover for the Fed. Against a hike: a mild slowdown in US industrial output. CME FedWatch also shows ~53% probability for a hike.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Bitcoin at $78,136 (September 9, 2026). Kalshi markets assign ~83% probability of BTC touching $100,000 at any point in 2026. Polymarket gives BTC 68% odds to close above $90,000 by year-end. A year-end close above $100,000 (not just a touch) is more demanding: median year-end contract estimates imply ~$81,000. Arguments for >$100k close: historical Q4 seasonality (+49% in Q4 2024, +56% in Q4 2023), ETF inflows, institutional demand. Headwinds: active Fed hiking cycle (~3.75% current funds rate), 10yr yield at 4.86%.