💻 Technology · Next Month

Anthropic Corporation achieves an opening-day market capitalisation of over USD 1.5 trillion at its Nasdaq IPO (by 31 October 2026), confirmed by Nasdaq listing documents or Bloomberg

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 1. September 2026 · Predicted for 31. October 2026 · Based on: Speculative

Probability

65%

Polymarket assigns 78% probability that Anthropic reaches ≥USD 1.5 trillion market cap, and 90% for an IPO by October 31 (Polymarket volume ~USD 25M). Anthropic filed its S-1 on 1 June 2026 and is targeting an October IPO at ~USD 2 trillion; annualised revenue run rate is reported at ~USD 47 billion. Combined probability (IPO occurs AND valuation >1.5T) is ~70%; own estimate 65% (discount for market volatility and dilution risk). The existing open prediction covers only the IPO event, not the valuation level.

Data basis for this prediction

Polymarket: 78% Anthropic reaches $1.5T valuation (Polymarket/KuCoin, 1 Sep 2026)
Polymarket: 90% Anthropic IPO by Oct 31 2026; $1.75–2.0T bracket at 21.5% (Polymarket, 1 Sep 2026)
Anthropic S-1 filed 1 Jun 2026, Oct IPO target ~$2T, ARR ~$47B (Bloomberg/TechCrunch, Aug 2026)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Miss

Anthropic hat zwar am 26. Oktober 2026 seine S-1-Registrierung öffentlich bei der SEC eingereicht (Ticker: ANT, Nasdaq Global Select Market), jedoch hat das eigentliche Börsenlisting bis zum Stichtag 31. Oktober 2026 NICHT stattgefunden. Der Roadshow-Start ist frühestens am 10. November 2026 geplant (15 Tage nach der öffentlichen S-1-Einreichung gemäß SEC-Sperrfrist), und der erste Handelstag wird frühestens um den 16. November 2026 erwartet. Eine bestätigte Erstnotiz-Marktkapitalisierung existiert damit nicht. Zusätzlich ist die angestrebte Bewertung von ~$2 Billionen inzwischen auf rund $1,5 Billionen gefallen – selbst bei einem späteren Listing wäre die '>$1,5T'-Schwelle unsicher. Quellen: Anthropic S-1 Pressemitteilung (anthropic.com/news/s1-sec), Yahoo Finance, shattered.io/anthropic-ipo-valuation.

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