Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) beats Q2-2026 adjusted EPS consensus of approx. $1.82 per share (30 July 2026)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 16. July 2026
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Predicted for 30. July 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Amazon reports Q2 2026 results (April–June 2026) on 30 July 2026. Adjusted EPS consensus stands at approx. $1.82. Key drivers: AWS growing at ~19% YoY (generative AI infrastructure), advertising revenues in double digits, improved logistics profitability through same-day delivery expansion. Amazon's Q2 operating income guidance was $20–24 billion. Historical EPS beat rate for Amazon is approx. 80% (8 of 10 quarters). The Hormuz crisis slightly raises transport costs but is offset by AWS and advertising strength. No direct Polymarket market; historical rate implies 68%.
Data basis for this prediction
- Amazon Q2-2026 Berichtsdatum: 30. Juli 2026; EPS-Konsens 1,82 USD (FinanceCalendar, 16.07.2026)
- Amazon Q1-2026 EPS: 1,59 USD (Beat vs. Konsens 1,37 USD; Amazon IR, April 2026)
- AWS Q1-2026 Wachstum: 19 % YoY (Amazon Earnings Call, April 2026)
- Amazon Q2 operative Gewinn-Guidance: 20–24 Mrd. USD (Amazon IR, April 2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
Amazon berichtete am 30. Juli 2026 Q2-2026-Ergebnisse und übertraf den bereinigten EPS-Konsens von ~1,82 USD deutlich: Der bereinigte EPS lag bei ~1,97 USD (+ca. 8 % über dem Konsens). Der GAAP-EPS von 5,75 USD war durch einen einmaligen nicht-operativen Buchgewinn von 53,4 Mrd. USD aus der Anthropic-Beteiligung (Mark-to-Market) erheblich aufgebläht und ist daher nicht repräsentativ für das operative Ergebnis. Auf operativer Basis schlug Amazon dennoch klar: AWS wuchs 36,7 % YoY (vs. erwarteten ~19 %), Umsatz 200,6 Mrd. USD (vs. 196,85 Mrd. erwartet), Werbeumsatz +26 % YoY. Quellen: Shacknews (https://www.shacknews.com/article/150202/amazon-amzn-q2-2026-earnings-results), Yahoo Finance (https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/amazon-amzn-surpasses-q2-earnings-211501363.html), TradingKey (https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/stocks/us-stocks/262121088-amazon-amzn-q2-2026-200-6b-revenue-5-75-eps-beat-aws-37-growth-220-capex-3-trillion-market-cap-tradingkey).
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The S&P 500 closed at 7,636.36 on 9 September 2026. Falling below 7,450 by month-end would require a 2.4% decline. Headwinds: Fed rate hike of 25bp on 16 September (CentralBank.Watch: 59% probability), August PPI above expectations (+5.4% YoY), Iran-Gulf risk premium. Stabilizing factors: hike largely priced in (Polymarket: 93% for zero 2026 cuts), Q2 earnings solid, no recession signals. Historically, a single 25bp September hike rarely causes a monthly decline above 2.5%.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Polymarket shows a 53% probability for a 25 basis point hike as of September 10, 2026. US Core CPI August 2026 (release September 11) is expected by market consensus to be above 3.0% YoY. The ECB raised its deposit rate by 25 bps to 2.50% on September 10, 2026 – an inflation-fighting signal that provides cover for the Fed. Against a hike: a mild slowdown in US industrial output. CME FedWatch also shows ~53% probability for a hike.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The DAX closed at 25,562 points on September 9, 2026. A gain of +1.7% is required by month-end. Headwinds: ECB rate hike to 2.50% (September 10), 53% FOMC hike probability (September 16), persistently high oil prices (~$101/barrel Brent) weigh on energy-intensive DAX heavyweights. Tailwinds: strong SAP cloud growth expected, robust US demand, EUR/USD at 1.1644 benefits exporters. Implied 30-day volatility (VDAX): ~16%, corresponding to a σ range of roughly ±5.5% by month-end — the 26,000 level falls within the central distribution.