💻 Technology · Next Month

Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOGL) beats the Non-GAAP EPS analyst consensus in Q3 FY2026 results (approx. October 29, 2026, after market close, confirmed by Alphabet press release or Bloomberg)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 31. August 2026 · Predicted for 29. October 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

73%

Alphabet beat Non-GAAP EPS consensus in 9 of the last 10 quarters. Google Search benefits from AI-enhanced search (AI Overviews), Google Cloud grows >25% YoY gaining AI infrastructure share, YouTube ad revenue recovering. Alphabet is not in existing predictions. No Polymarket market for Q3 2026 EPS; historical ~90% beat rate anchors the estimate. Reduced to 73% for structural search market risk from AI assistants.

Data basis for this prediction

Alphabet Q1–Q2 FY2026 Earnings: Non-GAAP EPS Konsens-Beat in beiden Quartalen (Bloomberg Consensus)
Google Cloud Q2 2026: +28 % YoY Umsatzwachstum (Alphabet Q2 2026 Pressemitteilung)
Alphabet historische EPS-Beat-Rate Q2 2022–Q2 2026: 9/10 Quartale (Bloomberg Consensus Tracker)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Miss

Alphabet verfehlte den EPS-Konsens in Q3 2026 deutlich. Der GAAP-EPS lag bei $2,12 (Konsens: ~$3,01–$3,02), der analyst-adjustierte/Non-GAAP-EPS bei ca. $2,67 (ebenfalls unter Konsens). Hauptursachen: (1) $8,7 Mrd. unrealisierter Verlust aus dem SpaceX-Investment reduzierte den GAAP-EPS allein um ~$0,55; (2) Google Services-Umsatz ($96,3 Mrd.) verfehlte die Schätzung ($98,4 Mrd.); (3) Operating Income ($40,6 Mrd.) lag unter dem Konsens ($43,2 Mrd.). Die Aktie fiel ~10 % im After-Hours-Handel. Laut CNBC und Yahoo Finance war es Alphabets erste Top-und-Bottom-Line-Verfehlung seit fast vier Jahren – die historische ~90%ige Beat-Rate konnte die Vorhersage nicht retten. Quellen: Yahoo Finance ('GOOGL Q3 Earnings Miss Estimates'), Investing.com ('Q3 2026 profit miss sparks 10% after-hours drop'), Reuters (adjustierter EPS $2,67 unter Konsens $3,02), SEC 8-K Filing (Alphabet Q3 2026 Earnings Release).

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Applied Materials Inc. (NASDAQ: AMAT) beats Q4 FY2026 EPS consensus of $4.06 per share — earnings report November 12, 2026 after market close (confirmed by Applied Materials Investor Relations or Bloomberg by November 13, 2026, 10:00 AM ET)

Applied Materials has beaten the EPS consensus in all four of its last reported quarters, with an average earnings surprise of +3.5%. The company's own Q4 guidance is $3.82–$4.22 per share; consensus at $4.06 sits near the midpoint, reflecting classic conservative management framing. Revenue is estimated at $10.30B (+51% YoY) — TSMC and Samsung have not pulled back H2 2026 capex plans. No Polymarket market directly available; a 100% beat streak over 4 quarters with a positive guidance range implies 70–75% probability. Risk: supply chain delays or expanded US export controls on advanced chips could force a Q5 inventory build.

72%

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Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE: PLTR) closes above $185.00 per share on at least one trading day in November 2026 — confirmed by Nasdaq or Bloomberg by December 1, 2026

PLTR closed at $175.40 on November 4, 2026 (after-hours: $170.88, -2.58%; intraday high: $176.54; 52-week high: $212.94). Palantir clearly beat Q3-FY2026 EPS consensus: total revenue $2.313B, US Commercial revenue +148% YoY to $984M. The $185 threshold is +5.5% above the closing price or +8.3% above after-hours levels. Typical post-earnings 'sell the news' may weigh short-term, but the 52-week high of $212.94 confirms the level is reachable. NVIDIA earnings on November 18, 2026 could serve as a sector-wide catalyst. No direct Polymarket equivalent; own estimate: ~42%.

42%

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Cerebras Systems (NASDAQ: CBRS) closes below $100.00 per share on November 10, 2026 (confirmed by Nasdaq or Bloomberg by November 11, 2026)

CBRS trades at $109.18 (October 30, 2026) — already 61% below its all-time high of $279.72. The final and largest lockup expiration is scheduled for November 10, 2026: approximately 19.4 million shares are unlocked (of three tranches of 19.4M each). Prior lockup tranches have consistently weighed on the stock. Insiders have sold ~$394.6M in shares since the May 2026 IPO — zero insider purchases. A Culper Research short-seller report has triggered multiple investigations. A close below $100 requires a ~8.4% decline — plausible given the expected supply pressure on expiration day.

62%

Next Week · Predicted for 10. Nov 2026