💻 Technology · Next Year

Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOGL) beats the Non-GAAP EPS analyst consensus in its Q3-FY2026 earnings report (approx. October 28, 2026; confirmed by Alphabet press release or Bloomberg)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 29. August 2026 · Predicted for 28. October 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

72%

Alphabet beat the Non-GAAP EPS consensus in 14 of the past 16 quarters (87.5% beat rate, Bloomberg/FactSet). Google Cloud grew ~28% YoY in Q2 2026. The NASDAQ Composite closed at 26,402 on August 29, 2026 (–0.52%), indicating an overall positive valuation environment for tech. The Non-GAAP EPS consensus for Q3 FY2026 is estimated at approximately $2.10–2.20 per share (Bloomberg extrapolation). No Polymarket market for Alphabet Q3-FY2026 earnings found. High beat rate, AI tailwinds, and Cloud growth make a further beat highly probable.

Data basis for this prediction

Alphabet Q2 FY2026-Ergebnis: Google Cloud +28 % YoY, EPS-Beat (Alphabet IR, Juli 2026)
Alphabet historische EPS-Beat-Rate: 14/16 Quartale (Bloomberg/FactSet, Stand Aug 2026)
NASDAQ-Schlussstand 29.08.2026: 26.402 Punkte (Yahoo Finance, 29.08.2026)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Miss

Alphabet meldete am 28. Oktober 2026 einen GAAP-EPS von 2,12 USD für Q3 FY2026 – deutlich unter dem Analysten-Konsens von ca. 3,01–3,02 USD (MISS von ~0,90 USD bzw. ~30 %). Alphabet veröffentlicht keine separaten Non-GAAP-EPS-Zahlen in der offiziellen Pressemitteilung (SEC-Formular 8-K), weshalb der GAAP-EPS der maßgebliche Vergleichswert ist. Auch der Umsatz (127,58 Mrd. USD) verfehlte die Schätzung (127,93 Mrd. USD). Zudem sank der EPS gegenüber Q3 2025 (2,87 USD) – ein unerwarteter YoY-Rückgang, der auf erhebliche Sonderbelastungen hindeutet. Einzig Google Cloud schlug mit 30,71 Mrd. USD (+103 % YoY) die Erwartungen (29,10 Mrd. USD). Die Vorhersage scheiterte vor allem, weil der tatsächliche Konsens (~3,01–3,02 USD) weit über der in der Vorhersage angenommenen Schätzung von 2,10–2,20 USD lag und der realisierte EPS diesen Konsens deutlich verfehlte. Quellen: SEC 8-K Alphabet Q3 2026 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001652044/000165204426000080/googexhibit991q32026.htm), MarketBeat (https://www.marketbeat.com/earnings/reports/2026-10-28-alphabet-inc-stock-1/), Walter Bloomberg / X (https://x.com/DeItaone/status/2115535292950094116).

Related Predictions

💻 Technology ✦ AI

Applied Materials Inc. (NASDAQ: AMAT) beats Q4 FY2026 EPS consensus of $4.06 per share — earnings report November 12, 2026 after market close (confirmed by Applied Materials Investor Relations or Bloomberg by November 13, 2026, 10:00 AM ET)

Applied Materials has beaten the EPS consensus in all four of its last reported quarters, with an average earnings surprise of +3.5%. The company's own Q4 guidance is $3.82–$4.22 per share; consensus at $4.06 sits near the midpoint, reflecting classic conservative management framing. Revenue is estimated at $10.30B (+51% YoY) — TSMC and Samsung have not pulled back H2 2026 capex plans. No Polymarket market directly available; a 100% beat streak over 4 quarters with a positive guidance range implies 70–75% probability. Risk: supply chain delays or expanded US export controls on advanced chips could force a Q5 inventory build.

72%

Next Week · Predicted for 12. Nov 2026

💻 Technology ✦ AI

Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE: PLTR) closes above $185.00 per share on at least one trading day in November 2026 — confirmed by Nasdaq or Bloomberg by December 1, 2026

PLTR closed at $175.40 on November 4, 2026 (after-hours: $170.88, -2.58%; intraday high: $176.54; 52-week high: $212.94). Palantir clearly beat Q3-FY2026 EPS consensus: total revenue $2.313B, US Commercial revenue +148% YoY to $984M. The $185 threshold is +5.5% above the closing price or +8.3% above after-hours levels. Typical post-earnings 'sell the news' may weigh short-term, but the 52-week high of $212.94 confirms the level is reachable. NVIDIA earnings on November 18, 2026 could serve as a sector-wide catalyst. No direct Polymarket equivalent; own estimate: ~42%.

42%

Next Month · Predicted for 30. Nov 2026

💻 Technology ✦ AI

Cerebras Systems (NASDAQ: CBRS) closes below $100.00 per share on November 10, 2026 (confirmed by Nasdaq or Bloomberg by November 11, 2026)

CBRS trades at $109.18 (October 30, 2026) — already 61% below its all-time high of $279.72. The final and largest lockup expiration is scheduled for November 10, 2026: approximately 19.4 million shares are unlocked (of three tranches of 19.4M each). Prior lockup tranches have consistently weighed on the stock. Insiders have sold ~$394.6M in shares since the May 2026 IPO — zero insider purchases. A Culper Research short-seller report has triggered multiple investigations. A close below $100 requires a ~8.4% decline — plausible given the expected supply pressure on expiration day.

62%

Next Week · Predicted for 10. Nov 2026