💻 Technology · Next Week

Allan MacDonald (University of Texas at Austin) wins Nobel Prize in Physics 2026 for theoretical foundations of magic-angle superconductivity in twisted bilayer graphene (announced October 6, 2026, confirmed via Nobel.org by October 6, 2026)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 3. October 2026 · Predicted for 6. October 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

20%

Kalshi rates Allan MacDonald (UT Austin) at 21% as top candidate, followed by Alexei Kitaev (Caltech, 17%) and Charles Kane (University of Pennsylvania, 15%). All three research topological condensed matter — a field without a Physics Nobel since 2016 (Thouless/Haldane/Kosterlitz). MacDonald's work on magic-angle superconductivity in graphene bilayers (2018, with Pablo Jarillo-Herrero, MIT) ranks among the most-cited physics discoveries of the past decade and launched the global twistronics research wave. Single-name probability for MacDonald: 20%; total probability for the topological condensed matter field: ~35%. Clarivate Citation Laureates 2026 lists condensed matter as a strong predictor candidate.

Data basis for this prediction

Kalshi: 21 % für Allan MacDonald, Nobelpreis Physik 2026 (Stand 3.10.2026)
Kalshi: Alexei Kitaev 17 %, Charles Kane 15 % als nächste Kandidaten (Stand 3.10.2026)
Bohring Substack: Who Will Win the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physics? (September 2026)
Clarivate Citation Laureates 2026: Condensed Matter Physics als Nobelpreiskandidat

Verdict: Miss

Der Nobelpreis für Physik 2026 ging nicht an Allan MacDonald (UT Austin) für Twisted-Bilayer-Graphen-Supraleitung, sondern an Francis Halzen (University of Wisconsin–Madison) für seine entscheidenden Beiträge zum IceCube-Neutrino-Observatorium und die Entdeckung hochenergetischer Neutrinos astrophysikalischen Ursprungs. Weder der Preisträger noch das Forschungsfeld (Neutrino-Astrophysik statt topologische Kondensatmaterie) stimmen mit der Vorhersage überein. Quelle: NobelPrize.org (https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/physics/2026/press-release/), CNN (https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/06/science/nobel-prize-physics-francis-halzen-winner-intl), Spektrum der Wissenschaft (https://www.spektrum.de/news/physik-nobelpreis-2026-fuer-forschung-zu-hochenergetischen-neutrinos/2343916).

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