AfD receives more than 28.0% of votes in the Saxony-Anhalt state election (September 6, 2026)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 30. August 2026
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Predicted for 6. September 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
Saxony-Anhalt is one of the AfD's strongest regions in Germany: in the 2021 federal election the AfD received 34.1% of first votes there. While the AfD achieved only 20.8% in the 2021 SA state election, comparable eastern state results have since improved significantly (Brandenburg 2024: 29.2%; Saxony 2024: 30.6%; Thuringia 2024: 32.8%). Open Cassandra.news predictions for the SA election cover CDU (>20%), SPD (<9%), Linke (>10%), Greens (>5.5%), BSW (<5%), FDP (<5%) — none names the AfD, which current pre-election polls place at 30–35%. No Polymarket odds found; own calibration based on historical comparables: 72%.
Data basis for this prediction
- Bundestagswahl 2021 Sachsen-Anhalt: AfD 34,1% Erststimmen (Bundeswahlleiter, September 2021)
- Brandenburg Landtagswahl 2024: AfD 29,2% (Landeswahlleiter Brandenburg, September 2024)
- Sachsen Landtagswahl 2024: AfD 30,6% (Sächsischer Landeswahlbeauftragter, September 2024)
- Thüringen Landtagswahl 2024: AfD 32,8% (Thüringer Landeswahlbeauftragte, September 2024)
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] AfD erzielte 44–48 %, deutlich mehr als 28,0 %. Quelle: ZDF-Hochrechnung, wahlrecht.de
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
The SPD received exactly 18.4% in the 2023 Berlin state election and has since been in opposition. Current polls (August/September 2026) put the SPD at 19–22%, making a result above 18.0% likely. Headwinds: ongoing federal political controversy and competition from BSW (which, per existing prediction, is expected below 5%). The 18.0% threshold is just below the 2023 result and would only be missed in a dramatic collapse. No Polymarket market; Metaculus aggregate implies ~65% for SPD above 18%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Both current Berlin polls place the FDP far below the 5% threshold: INSA (Sept 2–4, 2026): 3.0%; Infratest dimap (Aug 27–31, 2026): FDP below the statistical detectable threshold. The Berlin FDP has not reached the 5% mark in any poll since spring 2026. Clearing the hurdle would require a simultaneous systematic error of 2+ points from both institutes — historically near-unprecedented. This is the highest-confidence prediction of the entire Berlin election.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Current polls show Liberalerna well below the 4% threshold: Indikator Opinion (fieldwork to September 4, 2026): 2.2%; PolitPro election trend (as of September 9, 2026): 2.7%. Neither institute identifies meaningful upward momentum. The party was part of the Tidö coalition but suffered from its image problems. Even with maximum systematic polling error of +1.5 points, Liberalerna would remain below 4.2%. Failing to enter the Riksdag would cost the governing coalition its parliamentary majority.