AfD achieves more than 32.0% of votes cast in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election (September 20, 2026, confirmed by MV state election officer or tagesschau.de by September 21, 2026)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 3. September 2026
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Predicted for 20. September 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
Current polls for the MV state election: Forsa/Ostsee-Zeitung (September 2, 2026) shows AfD at 37%; Infratest dimap/NDR at 35%. The gap between the polling center (~36%) and the 32% threshold is ~4 percentage points. Even with a negative polling error of 3–4 points (historical maximum in eastern German elections), missing the 32% mark is very unlikely. In MV in 2021 the AfD won 17.7%; it has massively gained in national polls since then. No direct Polymarket equivalent found.
Data basis for this prediction
- Forsa/Ostsee-Zeitung MV-Umfrage: AfD 37 %, SPD 28 % (2. September 2026)
- Infratest dimap/NDR MV-Umfrage: AfD 35 %, SPD 32 % (August 2026)
- wahlrecht.de: MV Umfragenübersicht (Stand 3. September 2026)
Verdict: Hit
Die AfD erzielte bei der Landtagswahl in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern am 20. September 2026 laut vorläufigem amtlichem Endergebnis des Landeswahlleiters 38,2 % der Stimmen und wurde damit stärkste Partei – deutlich über der Schwelle von 32,0 %. Die Vorhersage trat klar ein. Quellen: Landeswahlleiter MV (landtag-mv.de/aktuelles/artikel/landtagswahl-2026-vorlaeufiges-amtliches-endergebnis), bpb.de/kurz-knapp/hintergrund-aktuell/581565
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