🏛️ Politics · Next Month

AfD receives more than 16.0% of votes cast in the Berlin state election (September 20, 2026), confirmed by Berlin state returning officer or tagesschau.de by September 21, 2026

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 5. September 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

57%

The AfD received only 9.2% at the 2023 Berlin state election. Since then the AfD has gained significantly nationally — at the 2025 federal election it stood at ~21% nationwide. East Berlin's peripheral districts are also traditionally AfD-affine. Current poll aggregators place the AfD in Berlin for 2026 at ~14–18%, meaning the probability of exceeding the >16% threshold is approximately 55–60%. The existing prediction for the Berlin election (Linke strongest party >19%, BSW <5%, FDP <5%) arithmetically leaves enough room for an AfD result of 16–20% that is compatible with the Linke primacy result. No Polymarket contract; calibrated from 2025 federal result and Berlin regional polls.

Data basis for this prediction

AfD Berlin Abgeordnetenhauswahl 2023: 9,2 % (Landeswahlleiter Berlin, 12.2.2023)
AfD Bundestagswahl 2025 national: ~21 % (Bundeswahlleiter, 23.2.2025)
Politico EU Umfrage-Aggregator Berlin LTW 2026: AfD ~14–18 % (Stand 3.9.2026)
Bestehende Vorhersagen: Linke >19 % (stärkste Partei), BSW <5 %, FDP <5 % (selbe Wahl)

Verdict: Hit

Die AfD erzielte bei der Abgeordnetenhauswahl Berlin am 20. September 2026 laut offiziellem Ergebnis des Landeswahlleiters 16,3 % der Zweitstimmen – damit wurde der Schwellenwert von >16,0 % knapp überschritten. Quellen: wahlen-berlin.de (offizielles Ergebnis), Wikipedia 'Wahl zum Abgeordnetenhaus von Berlin 2026', statistiken-aktuell.de.

Related Predictions

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Donald Trump publicly questions the legitimacy of the 2026 midterm results and signals legal challenges by November 15, 2026

Democrats won both chambers historically at the November 3, 2026 midterms (Senate 54:44, House 258 seats — largest majority since 1993). Trump's disapproval rating stands at 62% (FiveThirtyEight, Nov 2026). Based on documented behavioral pattern: after the 2020 presidential election, Trump posted voter fraud claims within 48 hours; after the 2022 midterms, challenges followed within a week. Metaculus community places >70% probability on public contesting after major GOP losses. A public statement via Truth Social, press release, or confirmed media interview by November 15, 2026 counts as verification (Reuters or AP).

72%

Next Week · Predicted for 15. Nov 2026

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Ukraine-Russia-US Trilateral Talks in Abu Dhabi (Nov 10–11, 2026) Conclude Without Ceasefire Agreement

Ukrainian, US, and Russian negotiators convene November 10–11 in Abu Dhabi. Russia conducted large-scale long-range strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure and logistics hubs on November 3–4; Ukraine responded with drone strikes on the Ryazan refinery. Positions on territory and security guarantees remain far apart. No Polymarket or Kalshi market covers this specific event; historical base rate for failure of comparable trilateral talks: >80%.

76%

Next Week · Predicted for 11. Nov 2026

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Alberto Núñez Feijóo (PP) secures parliamentary majority with Vox coalition and becomes Spanish Prime Minister — General Election 29 November 2026 (confirmed by Junta Electoral Central or AP by 1 December 2026)

Spain holds a general election on 29 November 2026. Polymarket prices Feijóo as next PM at 85%, Kalshi at 82% — both serve as anchors. A separate Polymarket market gives PP+Vox a 92% probability of a joint majority (>176/350 seats). Current polls (Sondaxe) show PP at 29.2% narrowly ahead of PSOE (26.9%); Vox is tracking slightly higher. Feijóo failed to form a government in 2023, but market odds reflect the lesson learned: PP+Vox is now seen as stable enough. No deviation from market anchor warranted.

83%

Next Month · Predicted for 29. Nov 2026