Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD) beats the adjusted EPS consensus of approximately USD 1.60 per share in Q2 2026 earnings on 4 August 2026
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 14. July 2026
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Predicted for 4. August 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
AMD reports Q2 2026 earnings on 4 August 2026 (after market close). EPS consensus: $1.60 adjusted; revenue consensus ~$11.25bn (YoY +46%). AMD's own Q2 revenue guidance was $11.2bn – tightly aligned with the street. Key growth drivers: (1) Instinct MI300X/MI400 GPUs for hyperscaler AI data centres (Azure, AWS, Meta), (2) EPYC CPU market-share gains vs. Intel. AMD historically beats EPS consensus in >70% of quarters. Risk factor: US AI-chip export restrictions to China could limit upside. The narrow gap between guidance and consensus slightly reduces beat probability vs. the historical average.
Data basis for this prediction
- AMD Q2 2026 EPS-Konsens: $1,60 bereinigt; Umsatzkonsens ~$11,25 Mrd. (Investing.com / Finbold, 14.07.2026)
- AMD Q2 2026 Ergebnistermin: 4. August 2026, nach Börsenschluss, CC 17:00 ET (AMD IR / Finbold)
- AMD Q2 Umsatz-Guidance: $11,2 Mrd. (±$300 Mio.) – deckt sich mit Straßenschätzung (AMD IR, Mai 2026)
- AMD Instinct MI300X/MI400: starke Hyperscaler-Nachfrage (Microsoft, AWS, Meta) Q2 2026 (AMD IR, Q1 2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
AMD berichtete am 4. August 2026 nach Börsenschluss ein bereinigtes (Non-GAAP) EPS von 1,66 USD und übertraf damit den Konsens von ~1,60 USD um 0,06 USD (+3,75 %). Auch der Umsatz übertraf mit 11,54 Mrd. USD (+50 % YoY) die Konsenserwartung von ~11,25 Mrd. USD. Haupttreiber war das Rechenzentrumsgeschäft mit Rekordeinnahmen von 6,7 Mrd. USD (>100 % YoY). Trotz des Doppelbeats fiel die Aktie nachbörslich ~9 %, da die GAAP-Bruttomarge mit 54 % unter den Erwartungen von 56 % lag (Kosten durch den Helios-KI-Infrastruktur-Ramp). Quellen: ir.amd.com (offizielle Pressemitteilung), stocktitan.net, investing.com, qz.com.
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Applied Materials has beaten the EPS consensus in all four of its last reported quarters, with an average earnings surprise of +3.5%. The company's own Q4 guidance is $3.82–$4.22 per share; consensus at $4.06 sits near the midpoint, reflecting classic conservative management framing. Revenue is estimated at $10.30B (+51% YoY) — TSMC and Samsung have not pulled back H2 2026 capex plans. No Polymarket market directly available; a 100% beat streak over 4 quarters with a positive guidance range implies 70–75% probability. Risk: supply chain delays or expanded US export controls on advanced chips could force a Q5 inventory build.
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PLTR closed at $175.40 on November 4, 2026 (after-hours: $170.88, -2.58%; intraday high: $176.54; 52-week high: $212.94). Palantir clearly beat Q3-FY2026 EPS consensus: total revenue $2.313B, US Commercial revenue +148% YoY to $984M. The $185 threshold is +5.5% above the closing price or +8.3% above after-hours levels. Typical post-earnings 'sell the news' may weigh short-term, but the 52-week high of $212.94 confirms the level is reachable. NVIDIA earnings on November 18, 2026 could serve as a sector-wide catalyst. No direct Polymarket equivalent; own estimate: ~42%.
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CBRS trades at $109.18 (October 30, 2026) — already 61% below its all-time high of $279.72. The final and largest lockup expiration is scheduled for November 10, 2026: approximately 19.4 million shares are unlocked (of three tranches of 19.4M each). Prior lockup tranches have consistently weighed on the stock. Insiders have sold ~$394.6M in shares since the May 2026 IPO — zero insider purchases. A Culper Research short-seller report has triggered multiple investigations. A close below $100 requires a ~8.4% decline — plausible given the expected supply pressure on expiration day.