Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD) reports Q3 FY2026 net revenue above USD 13.0 billion (July–September 2026, publication approx. October 28, 2026, confirmed by AMD Investor Relations or Bloomberg by October 29, 2026)
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 14. September 2026
·
Predicted for 28. October 2026
·
Based on: Statistical Pattern
AMD issued Q3 FY2026 revenue guidance of approximately USD 13.0 billion (±USD 300 million), implying ~41% year-over-year growth. In the immediately preceding quarter Q2 FY2026 (ended June 27, 2026), Data Center revenue surged to USD 6.7 billion (+107% YoY), with AMD delivering an upside surprise versus consensus. Wedbush sees AMD's data center revenue for 2026/27 growing faster than initially modelled; analyst consensus stood at ~USD 12.5 billion, below AMD's own guidance midpoint. Given AMD's consistent track record of beating guidance and sustained MI300X demand, the probability of exceeding USD 13.0 billion is estimated at ~55%. No Polymarket market found for this event.
Data basis for this prediction
- AMD Q3 FY2026 Umsatz-Guidance: ~13,0 Mrd. USD ±300 Mio. (AMD Investor Relations / Seeking Alpha, August 2026)
- AMD Q2 FY2026 Ergebnis: Data-Center-Umsatz 6,7 Mrd. USD, +107 % YoY; Gesamt-Umsatzwachstum 50 % (CNBC, 4. August 2026)
- Wedbush: AMD 2026/27 Data-Center-Revenue wächst schneller als erwartet – Analyst-Upgrade (Seeking Alpha, 2026)
- AMD Form 10-Q Q2 FY2026 (SEC EDGAR, 27. Juni 2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Miss
AMD hat seinen Q3-FY2026-Quartalsbericht NICHT am 28. Oktober 2026 veröffentlicht. Der tatsächliche Earnings-Termin ist der 3. November 2026 (nach Börsenschluss). Da die Vorhersage explizit die Bestätigung 'bis 29. Oktober 2026' als Bedingung nennt und AMD zu diesem Zeitpunkt keine Q3-Ergebnisse veröffentlicht hatte, ist die Bedingung nicht erfüllt. Die Umsatzzahl selbst (>13,0 Mrd. USD) kann zum Beurteilungszeitpunkt 29. Oktober 2026 weder bestätigt noch widerlegt werden – der falsch angenommene Veröffentlichungstermin ist der entscheidende Fehler der Vorhersage. Quellen: MarketBeat (AMD Q3 2026 Earnings Date: Nov. 3, 2026), Yahoo Finance ('Dear AMD Stock Fans, Mark Your Calendar for November 3'), 247WallSt.com ('AMD Regaining Its $1 Trillion Valuation Faces the Ultimate Test on Nov. 3').
💻 Technology
✦ AI
Applied Materials has beaten the EPS consensus in all four of its last reported quarters, with an average earnings surprise of +3.5%. The company's own Q4 guidance is $3.82–$4.22 per share; consensus at $4.06 sits near the midpoint, reflecting classic conservative management framing. Revenue is estimated at $10.30B (+51% YoY) — TSMC and Samsung have not pulled back H2 2026 capex plans. No Polymarket market directly available; a 100% beat streak over 4 quarters with a positive guidance range implies 70–75% probability. Risk: supply chain delays or expanded US export controls on advanced chips could force a Q5 inventory build.
💻 Technology
✦ AI
PLTR closed at $175.40 on November 4, 2026 (after-hours: $170.88, -2.58%; intraday high: $176.54; 52-week high: $212.94). Palantir clearly beat Q3-FY2026 EPS consensus: total revenue $2.313B, US Commercial revenue +148% YoY to $984M. The $185 threshold is +5.5% above the closing price or +8.3% above after-hours levels. Typical post-earnings 'sell the news' may weigh short-term, but the 52-week high of $212.94 confirms the level is reachable. NVIDIA earnings on November 18, 2026 could serve as a sector-wide catalyst. No direct Polymarket equivalent; own estimate: ~42%.
💻 Technology
✦ AI
CBRS trades at $109.18 (October 30, 2026) — already 61% below its all-time high of $279.72. The final and largest lockup expiration is scheduled for November 10, 2026: approximately 19.4 million shares are unlocked (of three tranches of 19.4M each). Prior lockup tranches have consistently weighed on the stock. Insiders have sold ~$394.6M in shares since the May 2026 IPO — zero insider purchases. A Culper Research short-seller report has triggered multiple investigations. A close below $100 requires a ~8.4% decline — plausible given the expected supply pressure on expiration day.