Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NASDAQ: AMD) beats Q2-FY2026 earnings (August 4, 2026, after market close) adjusted non-GAAP EPS consensus of approx. USD 1.60 per share
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 26. July 2026
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Predicted for 4. August 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
AMD guided Q2-FY2026 revenue at $11.2bn (±$300M) — up +46% y/y and +9% QoQ vs. Q1. The Data Center segment (MI300/MI350 AI accelerators, EPYC server CPUs) already grew +57% y/y to $5.8bn in Q1. AMD has beaten adjusted EPS estimates in 8 consecutive quarters (Q1-FY2026: non-GAAP EPS $1.57 vs. consensus $1.52). CEO Lisa Su cited 'accelerating demand for AI infrastructure.' No direct Polymarket data for AMD Q2; own assessment based on revenue guidance and beat history.
Data basis for this prediction
- AMD Q2-FY2026 Revenue Guidance: 11,2 Mrd. USD ±300 Mio. (AMD IR, Pressemitteilung 7. Juli 2026)
- AMD Q1-FY2026: Non-GAAP EPS 1,57 USD vs. Konsens 1,52 USD – Beat +3,3 % (AMD April 2026)
- AMD Data Center Q1-FY2026: 5,8 Mrd. USD (+57 % y/y) (AMD Pressemitteilung April 2026)
- AMD EPS-Beat-Rate: 8/8 letzte Quartale (Bloomberg/FactSet, Stand 26. Juli 2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
AMD meldete am 4. August 2026 nach Börsenschluss einen bereinigten Non-GAAP-EPS von 1,66 USD je Aktie und übertraf damit den Konsens von ca. 1,60–1,62 USD deutlich. Der Quartalsumsatz erreichte mit 11,5 Mrd. USD ebenfalls einen Rekordwert (+50 % y/y, über der Guidance-Mitte von 11,2 Mrd. USD). Das Data-Center-Segment verdoppelte sich auf 6,7 Mrd. USD (+107 % y/y). Die Beat-Historie setzte sich damit fort. Quellen: finance.yahoo.com ('AMD Q2 2026 earnings: record revenue'), sci-tech-today.com ('Revenue Beats at $11.5 Billion'), cnbc.com ('AMD earnings report Q2 2026').
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Applied Materials has beaten the EPS consensus in all four of its last reported quarters, with an average earnings surprise of +3.5%. The company's own Q4 guidance is $3.82–$4.22 per share; consensus at $4.06 sits near the midpoint, reflecting classic conservative management framing. Revenue is estimated at $10.30B (+51% YoY) — TSMC and Samsung have not pulled back H2 2026 capex plans. No Polymarket market directly available; a 100% beat streak over 4 quarters with a positive guidance range implies 70–75% probability. Risk: supply chain delays or expanded US export controls on advanced chips could force a Q5 inventory build.
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PLTR closed at $175.40 on November 4, 2026 (after-hours: $170.88, -2.58%; intraday high: $176.54; 52-week high: $212.94). Palantir clearly beat Q3-FY2026 EPS consensus: total revenue $2.313B, US Commercial revenue +148% YoY to $984M. The $185 threshold is +5.5% above the closing price or +8.3% above after-hours levels. Typical post-earnings 'sell the news' may weigh short-term, but the 52-week high of $212.94 confirms the level is reachable. NVIDIA earnings on November 18, 2026 could serve as a sector-wide catalyst. No direct Polymarket equivalent; own estimate: ~42%.
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CBRS trades at $109.18 (October 30, 2026) — already 61% below its all-time high of $279.72. The final and largest lockup expiration is scheduled for November 10, 2026: approximately 19.4 million shares are unlocked (of three tranches of 19.4M each). Prior lockup tranches have consistently weighed on the stock. Insiders have sold ~$394.6M in shares since the May 2026 IPO — zero insider purchases. A Culper Research short-seller report has triggered multiple investigations. A close below $100 requires a ~8.4% decline — plausible given the expected supply pressure on expiration day.