Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMD) reports Q3 FY2026 net revenue exceeding $12.8 billion (July–September 2026, release approx. October 28, 2026)
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 17. September 2026
·
Predicted for 28. October 2026
·
Based on: Historical Cycle
AMD issued Q3 FY2026 guidance of approx. $13.0B (±$300M) during its Q2 FY2026 results (August 2026) — guidance range $12.7–$13.3B. Prior LSEG analyst consensus was $12.52B; AMD's own guidance significantly exceeded that. The $12.8B threshold sits slightly below the guidance floor ($12.7B), making it a conservatively calibrated, clear anchor. Drivers: AI data center growth (MI300X successor, targeting data center revenue doubling in 2027), PC market recovery. No Polymarket market for AMD Q3 2026 found; self-assessed probability ~78% based on guidance floor.
Data basis for this prediction
- AMD Q3 FY2026 Guidance: ~13,0 Mrd. USD ±300 Mio. (Seeking Alpha / AMD Q2 2026 Earnings Call, Aug. 2026)
- LSEG-Analystenkonsens AMD Q3 2026 vor Guidance: 12,52 Mrd. USD (TheStreet, Aug. 2026)
- AMD SEC Form 8-K Q2 FY2026 (EDGAR: /data/0000002488/000000248826000121, 2026)
- AMD: Datencenter-Umsatz-Verdoppelung 2027 angestrebt (Seeking Alpha, Sept. 2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Miss
Die AMD Q3-FY2026-Ergebnisse wurden NICHT am 28. Oktober 2026 veröffentlicht. AMD hat den Berichtstermin auf den 3. November 2026 (nach Börsenschluss) festgelegt. Stand 30. Oktober 2026 liegen damit noch keine tatsächlichen Quartalsergebnisse vor — die Umsatzschwelle von 12,8 Mrd. USD kann weder bestätigt noch widerlegt werden. Die Vorhersage scheitert am angenommenen Berichtsdatum ('ca. 28. Oktober 2026'), das mit dem echten Termin nicht übereinstimmt. Quellen: MarketBeat (https://www.marketbeat.com/earnings/reports/2026-11-3-advanced-micro-devices-inc-stock/), Yahoo Finance (https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/dear-amd-stock-fans-mark-230841702.html), 247wallst (https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/10/29/amd-regaining-its-1-trillion-valuation-faces-the-ultimate-test-on-nov-3/). AMD-Guidance für Q3 liegt bei ca. 13,0 Mrd. USD (±300 Mio.), Analystenkonsens bei ~13,06–13,08 Mrd. USD — der Umsatz würde die Schwelle sehr wahrscheinlich übertreffen, sobald der Bericht am 3. November erscheint.
💻 Technology
✦ AI
Applied Materials has beaten the EPS consensus in all four of its last reported quarters, with an average earnings surprise of +3.5%. The company's own Q4 guidance is $3.82–$4.22 per share; consensus at $4.06 sits near the midpoint, reflecting classic conservative management framing. Revenue is estimated at $10.30B (+51% YoY) — TSMC and Samsung have not pulled back H2 2026 capex plans. No Polymarket market directly available; a 100% beat streak over 4 quarters with a positive guidance range implies 70–75% probability. Risk: supply chain delays or expanded US export controls on advanced chips could force a Q5 inventory build.
💻 Technology
✦ AI
PLTR closed at $175.40 on November 4, 2026 (after-hours: $170.88, -2.58%; intraday high: $176.54; 52-week high: $212.94). Palantir clearly beat Q3-FY2026 EPS consensus: total revenue $2.313B, US Commercial revenue +148% YoY to $984M. The $185 threshold is +5.5% above the closing price or +8.3% above after-hours levels. Typical post-earnings 'sell the news' may weigh short-term, but the 52-week high of $212.94 confirms the level is reachable. NVIDIA earnings on November 18, 2026 could serve as a sector-wide catalyst. No direct Polymarket equivalent; own estimate: ~42%.
💻 Technology
✦ AI
CBRS trades at $109.18 (October 30, 2026) — already 61% below its all-time high of $279.72. The final and largest lockup expiration is scheduled for November 10, 2026: approximately 19.4 million shares are unlocked (of three tranches of 19.4M each). Prior lockup tranches have consistently weighed on the stock. Insiders have sold ~$394.6M in shares since the May 2026 IPO — zero insider purchases. A Culper Research short-seller report has triggered multiple investigations. A close below $100 requires a ~8.4% decline — plausible given the expected supply pressure on expiration day.