ADP National Employment Report August 2026: Net employment change below 110,000 (release September 2, 2026, confirmed by ADP/Moody's or Bloomberg)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 27. August 2026
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Predicted for 2. September 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
The ADP/Moody's employment report for August 2026 is expected on September 2, 2026 (first Wednesday of the month). The expectation of a weak labor market is supported by: (1) US Q2 2026 GDP of only +1.5% annualized (BEA second estimate, August 26, 2026); (2) market-priced expectation that US Non-Farm Payrolls (BLS, September 4) will come in below 120,000; (3) economic slowdown from persistent tariffs and subdued corporate investment. ADP Bloomberg consensus for August stood at ~125,000 in mid-August – our forecast of <110,000 is 12% below consensus, implying a meaningful miss. Kalshi and Polymarket offer no direct ADP markets.
Data basis for this prediction
- US BIP Q2 2026 zweite Schätzung BEA: +1,5 % annualisiert (BEA Pressemitteilung / Fox Business, 26. August 2026)
- Bloomberg ADP-Konsens August 2026: ~125.000 Stellen (Bloomberg, Stand Mitte August 2026)
- ADP-Veröffentlichungsrhythmus: erster Mittwoch des Monats (ADP.com historisches Muster)
- Markterwartung US NFP August 2026 unter 120.000 (offene Vorhersage / Kalshi-impliziert)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] ADP August 2026 Monatsbericht (veröffentlicht 2. September 2026, 8:15 ET): Juli 2026 lag bei 44.000 Jobs, ADP-Wochenpulse für August zeigen 8.250–11.750 Jobs/Woche (hochgerechnet ~33.000–47.000 monatlich). August 2025 lag ebenfalls bei nur 54.000. Das Ergebnis liegt mit sehr hoher Sicherheit deutlich unter 110.000.
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