Adam Hamilton (Democrats) wins the US Senate seat in Kansas against Roger Marshall (Republican) — US Midterm Elections November 3, 2026 (confirmed by AP or NBC News by November 4, 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 2. November 2026
·
Predicted for 3. November 2026
·
Based on: Historical Cycle
Polymarket prices Adam Hamilton (D) at 62% vs. incumbent Roger Marshall (R) at 39% — trading volume $2M (November 2, 2026). Kansas is traditionally a Republican stronghold, but the national Democratic wave (Polymarket Senate majority D: 73%, House majority D: 95%; Decision Desk HQ: Democrats 84% House) lifts competitive races like this. Silver Bulletin and Decision Desk HQ classify Kansas as contested. Probability kept at the Polymarket anchor of 62%, as market volume remains moderate despite national momentum.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket Kansas Senate: Adam Hamilton (D) 62%, Roger Marshall (R) 39%, Vol. $2 Mio. (polymarket.com, 2. November 2026)
- Polymarket Senatsmehrheit Demokraten: 73%, Hausmehrheit: 95% (polymarket.com, 2. November 2026)
- Decision Desk HQ: Demokraten 84% Haus, Senat 64% (decisiondeskhq.com, 2. November 2026)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Democrats won both chambers historically at the November 3, 2026 midterms (Senate 54:44, House 258 seats — largest majority since 1993). Trump's disapproval rating stands at 62% (FiveThirtyEight, Nov 2026). Based on documented behavioral pattern: after the 2020 presidential election, Trump posted voter fraud claims within 48 hours; after the 2022 midterms, challenges followed within a week. Metaculus community places >70% probability on public contesting after major GOP losses. A public statement via Truth Social, press release, or confirmed media interview by November 15, 2026 counts as verification (Reuters or AP).
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Ukrainian, US, and Russian negotiators convene November 10–11 in Abu Dhabi. Russia conducted large-scale long-range strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure and logistics hubs on November 3–4; Ukraine responded with drone strikes on the Ryazan refinery. Positions on territory and security guarantees remain far apart. No Polymarket or Kalshi market covers this specific event; historical base rate for failure of comparable trilateral talks: >80%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Spain holds a general election on 29 November 2026. Polymarket prices Feijóo as next PM at 85%, Kalshi at 82% — both serve as anchors. A separate Polymarket market gives PP+Vox a 92% probability of a joint majority (>176/350 seats). Current polls (Sondaxe) show PP at 29.2% narrowly ahead of PSOE (26.9%); Vox is tracking slightly higher. Feijóo failed to form a government in 2023, but market odds reflect the lesson learned: PP+Vox is now seen as stable enough. No deviation from market anchor warranted.