🏛️ Politics · Next Month

Berlin state election (September 20, 2026): FDP fails to clear the 5% threshold and does not enter the Abgeordnetenhaus (confirmed by Landeswahlleiter Berlin or tagesschau.de by September 21, 2026)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 4. September 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

94%

FDP polls at 3.1% per politpro.eu aggregate (September 2, 2026) in Berlin — nearly 2 percentage points below the 5% threshold. Following the federal coalition collapse in 2024 and poor results in the 2025 federal election, FDP is in structural crisis. In Berlin, FDP has consistently failed to mobilize beyond single-digit territory in recent years. No Polymarket market for Berlin-FDP.

Data basis for this prediction

politpro.eu Berlin Wahltrend 2. Sep 2026: FDP 3,1 % (politpro.eu/de/berlin)
Dawum.de Berlin Sonntagsfrage: FDP stabil ~3 % in allen Umfragen Sep 2026
Wikipedia: '2026 Berlin state election' — FDP unter 5 % in allen aktuellen Umfragen
FDP Bundestrend: strukturell geschwächt nach Ampel-Aus (2024), Bundestagswahl 2025-Debakel

Verdict: Hit

Die Vorhersage ist eingetreten. Laut dem vorläufigen amtlichen Ergebnis des Berliner Landeswahlleiters (veröffentlicht am 21. September 2026) erhielt die FDP nur 2,5 % der Zweitstimmen (46.341 Stimmen) und 2,2 % der Erststimmen — klar unter der 5 %-Sperrklausel. Die FDP zog damit nicht ins Abgeordnetenhaus ein. Quellen: wahlen-berlin.de (amtliche Ergebnisse) und berlin.de/wahlen (Pressemitteilung Landeswahlleiter, 21.09.2026).

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