🏛️ Politics · Next Week

Berlin state election (20 Sep 2026): FDP fails to clear the 5 % threshold and does not enter parliament

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 17. September 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

87%

The weighted polling average from dawum.de (4 surveys, n = 6,627, 10–14 Sep 2026) puts the FDP at 3.0 % – roughly two percentage points below the 5 % threshold. Individual surveys (Tagesspiegel, Berliner Morgenpost, Sep 2026) also show 3 %. No district-seat path or meaningful last-minute surge is visible; the trend has kept the Berlin FDP stably below the barrier since spring 2026.

Data basis for this prediction

dawum.de/Berlin: FDP 3,0 % (gew. Schnitt, 4 Erhebungen, n = 6.627, 10.–14.09.2026)
wahl-radar.de/Berlin: FDP-Trend 2,5–3,5 % in letzten drei Erhebungen (Stand 14.09.2026)
Tagesspiegel Wahlumfrage Berlin September 2026: FDP 3 %
Berliner Morgenpost Umfrage September 2026: FDP 3 %

Verdict: Hit

Die FDP erhielt bei der Abgeordnetenhauswahl Berlin am 20. September 2026 laut offiziellen Ergebnissen (wahlen-berlin.de, bestätigt durch Wikipedia und politpro.eu) 2,54 % der Zweitstimmen – deutlich unter der 5-%-Hürde. Sie gewann kein Direktmandat und zog mit 0 Sitzen nicht ins Abgeordnetenhaus ein. Die Vorhersage (Scheitern an der Sperrklausel) ist vollständig eingetreten. Der tatsächliche Wert lag sogar noch unter dem prognostizierten Umfragewert von ~3 %. Quellen: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Berlin_state_election, politpro.eu/en/berlin/election/parliament/2026

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