Berlin State Election (20 September 2026): FDP fails to clear the 5% threshold and does not enter the Berlin House of Representatives
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 12. September 2026
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Predicted for 20. September 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
All major polling institutes show Berlin FDP consistently at ~4%, well below the 5% threshold (Wahlrecht.de, Dawum.de, Sept 11, 2026). FDP missed in 2023 (4.6%) and 2026 polls are even lower. Calibration: ~72% for failing the threshold.
Data basis for this prediction
- Wahlrecht.de – Berlin Umfragen, Stand 11. September 2026: FDP ~4 %
- Dawum.de – Abgeordnetenhauswahl Berlin 2026: FDP unter 5-%-Hürde (Stand: 11. September 2026)
Verdict: Hit
Die FDP erhielt bei der Abgeordnetenhauswahl Berlin am 20. September 2026 laut den amtlichen Ergebnissen (wahlen-berlin.de) und übereinstimmenden Quellen (Wikipedia, politpro.eu) nur 2,5 % der Zweitstimmen – weit unter der 5-%-Hürde – und zog mit 0 Mandaten nicht in das Abgeordnetenhaus ein. Damit ist die Vorhersage klar eingetreten. Das Ergebnis lag sogar deutlich schlechter als erwartet: Die tatsächlichen 2,5 % bedeuteten einen Verlust von 2,1 Prozentpunkten gegenüber 2023 (4,6 %) und bestätigten den in den Umfragen erkennbaren Abwärtstrend vollständig. Quellen: https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/wahlen/BE2026/Afspraes/agh/ergebnisse_gemeinde_1100.html, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Berlin_state_election, https://politpro.eu/en/berlin/election/parliament/2026
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