Berlin state election (September 20, 2026): Die Linke receives more than 16.0% of valid votes cast
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 3. September 2026
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Predicted for 20. September 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Current polls show Die Linke at 19% (INSA, August 7–13, 2026) and 21% (Civey, August 5, 2026)—both well above the 16.0% threshold. Berlin is historically a Die Linke stronghold. The 2021 result was 14.0% (during a period of governing coalition decline); since then polls have recovered significantly. A drop below 16% would require a 3+ percentage point polling error, which is rare in German state elections. No Polymarket market for Berlin available.
Data basis for this prediction
- INSA Berlin Umfrage: CDU 20 %, Linke 19 %, AfD 17 % (T-Online, 13. August 2026)
- Civey Berlin Umfrage: Linke 21 %, CDU 19 %, AfD 18 % (T-Online, 5. August 2026)
- wahlrecht.de Berlin-Wahltrend (Stand 3. September 2026)
- Wikipedia: 2026 Berlin state election (Stand 3. September 2026)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
The SPD received exactly 18.4% in the 2023 Berlin state election and has since been in opposition. Current polls (August/September 2026) put the SPD at 19–22%, making a result above 18.0% likely. Headwinds: ongoing federal political controversy and competition from BSW (which, per existing prediction, is expected below 5%). The 18.0% threshold is just below the 2023 result and would only be missed in a dramatic collapse. No Polymarket market; Metaculus aggregate implies ~65% for SPD above 18%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Both current Berlin polls place the FDP far below the 5% threshold: INSA (Sept 2–4, 2026): 3.0%; Infratest dimap (Aug 27–31, 2026): FDP below the statistical detectable threshold. The Berlin FDP has not reached the 5% mark in any poll since spring 2026. Clearing the hurdle would require a simultaneous systematic error of 2+ points from both institutes — historically near-unprecedented. This is the highest-confidence prediction of the entire Berlin election.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Current polls show Liberalerna well below the 4% threshold: Indikator Opinion (fieldwork to September 4, 2026): 2.2%; PolitPro election trend (as of September 9, 2026): 2.7%. Neither institute identifies meaningful upward momentum. The party was part of the Tidö coalition but suffered from its image problems. Even with maximum systematic polling error of +1.5 points, Liberalerna would remain below 4.2%. Failing to enter the Riksdag would cost the governing coalition its parliamentary majority.