🏛️ Politics · Next Month

Berlin State Election (20 September 2026): CDU wins more than 18.0% of votes cast (confirmed by Berlin Returning Officer or tagesschau.de by 21 September 2026)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 8. September 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

67%

The 14-day polling aggregate (INSA, 4 Sep 2026) shows CDU at 20%; PolitPro trend at 19.6%. The 18.0% threshold provides a ~2pp buffer against current polling. CDU under new lead candidate Stefan Evers (replacing Wegner in July 2026) is fighting for first place, marginally trailing Die Linke (19.3%). Historical polling errors at Berlin state elections have been ±2–3pp. No Polymarket market for this result.

Data basis for this prediction

INSA Umfrage Berlin (4. September 2026): CDU 20 %, Die Linke 19,3 %, AfD 18 %
PolitPro Wahltrend Berlin: CDU 19,6 %, Die Linke 19,3 % (Stand 6.9.2026)
Tagesspiegel: 'Neue Umfrage sieht CDU in Berlin knapp vor Linken' (September 2026)
wahlrecht.de: Wahlumfragen Berliner Abgeordnetenhaus – Sonntagsfrage September 2026

Verdict: Hit

Die CDU erzielte bei der Abgeordnetenhauswahl Berlin am 20. September 2026 laut vorläufigem Ergebnis des Landeswahlleiters (Prof. Dr. Stephan Bröchler, verkündet 21. September 2026 um 02:14 Uhr) 18,8 % der Zweitstimmen. Damit übertraf sie die Schwelle von 18,0 % um 0,8 Prozentpunkte. Quellen: berlin.de/wahlen (Landeswahlleiter), Wikipedia 'Wahl zum Abgeordnetenhaus von Berlin 2026', statistiken-aktuell.de. Gewonnene Partei war Die Linke mit 25,7 %; CDU landete auf Platz 2.

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