Berlin state election (September 20, 2026): CDU receives more than 17.0% of votes cast (confirmed by Berlin returning officer or tagesschau.de by September 21, 2026)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 6. September 2026
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Predicted for 20. September 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
Current polling (Dawum.de aggregate, as of September 3, 2026) shows the CDU stable at ~19.5%. The average of the three most recent surveys is nearly 2.5 percentage points above the 17.0% prediction threshold — a comfortable buffer. The CDU benefits from high mobilization in Berlin's western districts and is seen as a solid second-to-third force alongside Die Linke (~20.0%) and AfD (~17.9%). Dropping below 17% would require a historically unprecedented collapse for the CDU in Berlin.
Data basis for this prediction
- Berlin Abgeordnetenhauswahl Umfrage-Aggregat: CDU 19,5 % (Dawum.de, 3. Sep 2026)
- Wikipedia Polling-Aggregator 2026 Berliner Abgeordnetenhauswahl (Stand Sep 2026)
- Berliner Morgenpost Wahlumfragen (Sep 2026)
Verdict: Hit
Die CDU erzielte bei der Abgeordnetenhauswahl Berlin am 20. September 2026 laut übereinstimmenden Berichten (u.a. statistiken-aktuell.de, ZDF heute, Wikipedia) 18,8 % der Stimmen — und liegt damit klar über der Prognoseschwelle von 17,0 %. Die Vorhersage ist eingetreten. Quelle: https://statistiken-aktuell.de/abgeordnetenhauswahl-berlin-2026/
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