Berlin state election (September 20, 2026): CDU receives more than 16.5% of votes (confirmed by Berlin returning officer or tagesschau.de by September 21, 2026)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 12. September 2026
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Predicted for 20. September 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Current polls (PolitPro / DAWUM, September 11–12, 2026) put CDU Berlin at 19.6%, just behind Die Linke (19.8%) in the tight four-party race. Stefan Evers took over as lead candidate after Kai Wegner stepped down. The prediction threshold of 16.5% is 3.1 percentage points below the polling figure. No Polymarket market; estimate approximately 81%.
Data basis for this prediction
- PolitPro Berlin election forecast: CDU 19,6% (11. Sept 2026, politpro.eu)
- DAWUM.de Berlin Abgeordnetenhauswahl 2026: CDU 19,6%
- Wikipedia 2026 Berlin state election (Stand September 2026)
Verdict: Hit
Die CDU erzielte bei der Abgeordnetenhauswahl Berlin am 20. September 2026 laut dem vorläufigen Ergebnis des Landeswahlleiters (bekanntgegeben am 21. September 2026, 02:14 Uhr) 18,8 % der Zweitstimmen – deutlich über der Schwelle von 16,5 %. Die Vorhersage ist damit klar eingetreten. Quellen: berlin.de (Landeswahlleiter, Pressemitteilung 1716422), Wikipedia 'Wahl zum Abgeordnetenhaus von Berlin 2026'.
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