Berlin state election (September 20, 2026): CDU receives more than 15.0% of votes cast, confirmed by Berlin state returning officer or tagesschau.de by September 21, 2026
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 5. September 2026
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Predicted for 20. September 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
The CDU still received 28.2% at the 2023 Berlin state election and provided governing mayor Kai Wegner. Existing predictions for the same election see Die Linke as the strongest party (>19%), Greens >14%, SPD >12% — indicating substantial CDU erosion. Nevertheless, a CDU collapse below 15% seems unlikely: even at its historic low in 2011 (17.6%), the CDU remained well above that threshold. Current poll aggregators place Berlin CDU 2026 in the 15–20% range, with the lower bound at ~16%. No Polymarket contract; calibrated from 2023 result and political shifts.
Data basis for this prediction
- CDU Berlin Abgeordnetenhauswahl 2023: 28,2 % (Landeswahlleiter Berlin, 12.2.2023)
- CDU Berlin historisches Minimum: 17,6 % (Abgeordnetenhauswahl 2011, Landeswahlleiter)
- Politico EU Umfrage-Aggregator Berlin LTW 2026: CDU ~15–20 % (Stand 3.9.2026)
- Bestehende Cassandra-Vorhersagen: Linke >19 % (stärkste Partei), Grüne >14 %, SPD >12 %
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
The SPD received exactly 18.4% in the 2023 Berlin state election and has since been in opposition. Current polls (August/September 2026) put the SPD at 19–22%, making a result above 18.0% likely. Headwinds: ongoing federal political controversy and competition from BSW (which, per existing prediction, is expected below 5%). The 18.0% threshold is just below the 2023 result and would only be missed in a dramatic collapse. No Polymarket market; Metaculus aggregate implies ~65% for SPD above 18%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Both current Berlin polls place the FDP far below the 5% threshold: INSA (Sept 2–4, 2026): 3.0%; Infratest dimap (Aug 27–31, 2026): FDP below the statistical detectable threshold. The Berlin FDP has not reached the 5% mark in any poll since spring 2026. Clearing the hurdle would require a simultaneous systematic error of 2+ points from both institutes — historically near-unprecedented. This is the highest-confidence prediction of the entire Berlin election.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Current polls show Liberalerna well below the 4% threshold: Indikator Opinion (fieldwork to September 4, 2026): 2.2%; PolitPro election trend (as of September 9, 2026): 2.7%. Neither institute identifies meaningful upward momentum. The party was part of the Tidö coalition but suffered from its image problems. Even with maximum systematic polling error of +1.5 points, Liberalerna would remain below 4.2%. Failing to enter the Riksdag would cost the governing coalition its parliamentary majority.