🏛️ Politics · Next Month

Berlin state election (September 20, 2026): CDU receives more than 15.0% of votes cast, confirmed by Berlin state returning officer or tagesschau.de by September 21, 2026

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 5. September 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

72%

The CDU still received 28.2% at the 2023 Berlin state election and provided governing mayor Kai Wegner. Existing predictions for the same election see Die Linke as the strongest party (>19%), Greens >14%, SPD >12% — indicating substantial CDU erosion. Nevertheless, a CDU collapse below 15% seems unlikely: even at its historic low in 2011 (17.6%), the CDU remained well above that threshold. Current poll aggregators place Berlin CDU 2026 in the 15–20% range, with the lower bound at ~16%. No Polymarket contract; calibrated from 2023 result and political shifts.

Data basis for this prediction

CDU Berlin Abgeordnetenhauswahl 2023: 28,2 % (Landeswahlleiter Berlin, 12.2.2023)
CDU Berlin historisches Minimum: 17,6 % (Abgeordnetenhauswahl 2011, Landeswahlleiter)
Politico EU Umfrage-Aggregator Berlin LTW 2026: CDU ~15–20 % (Stand 3.9.2026)
Bestehende Cassandra-Vorhersagen: Linke >19 % (stärkste Partei), Grüne >14 %, SPD >12 %

Verdict: Hit

Die CDU erzielte bei der Berliner Abgeordnetenhauswahl am 20. September 2026 laut übereinstimmenden Quellen (Wikipedia, statistiken-aktuell.de, politpro.eu) 18,8 % der abgegebenen Stimmen. Damit lag das Ergebnis klar über der Schwelle von 15,0 %, sodass die Vorhersage eingetreten ist. Die CDU verlor zwar erheblich (–9,5 Prozentpunkte gegenüber 28,2 % in 2023), blieb aber mit 18,8 % deutlich oberhalb der prognostizierten Untergrenze. Stärkste Partei wurde Die Linke mit 25,7 %.

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