🏛️ Politics · Next Week

Berlin state election (September 20, 2026): Bündnis 90/Die Grünen receive more than 11.0% of the vote (confirmed by Berlin state election commissioner or tagesschau.de by September 21, 2026)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 13. September 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

58%

Berlin's Greens fluctuated sharply recently: 22.4% in the 2021 federal election (Berlin), then a collapse to 9.4% in the 2023 state election. National polls for 2026 show a recovery to ~11–14% (Forsa/INSA, August 2026). Berlin remains the party's most urban and academically dense stronghold, making a sustained fall below 11% unlikely. At the same time, the projected Linke surge (Cassandra: >25%) limits the left-progressive voter pool. No Polymarket market directly available; internal calibration ~58% for >11.0%.

Data basis for this prediction

Abgeordnetenhauswahl Berlin 2023: Grüne 9,4 % (Landeswahlleiter Berlin, 12.02.2023)
Bundestagswahl 2021 Berlin (Erststimmen): Grüne 22,4 % (Bundeswahlleiter)
Nationale Grünen-Umfragen Aug. 2026: ~11–14 % (Forsa, INSA, zit. nach wahlrecht.de)
Offene Cassandra-Vorhersage: Die Linke Berlin >25 % – Konkurrenzeffekt im linken Lager

Verdict: Hit

Die Grünen erzielten bei der Abgeordnetenhauswahl Berlin am 20. September 2026 laut übereinstimmenden Quellen 14,3 % der Stimmen – deutlich über der Schwelle von 11,0 %. Die Vorhersage trat damit klar ein. Quellen: Wikipedia (2026 Berlin state election), politpro.eu, wahlen-berlin.de, Al Jazeera (20.09.2026).

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