Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus Election (20 September 2026): Bündnis 90/Die Grünen achieve more than 14.0% of votes cast (confirmed by Berlin Landeswahlleiter or tagesschau.de by 21 September 2026)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 9. September 2026
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Predicted for 20. September 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
PolitPro Trend Berlin (8 Sep 2026): Grüne 16.1%. INSA poll (4 Sep 2026): 15%. The Berlin Greens have clearly recovered from their 2023 slump (9.4%) and are stable at 15–16%. Both current surveys sit well above the 14.0% threshold. BSW polls at only 3.6% (PolitPro) and is unlikely to enter parliament. Standard poll uncertainty discount gives 76%.
Data basis for this prediction
- PolitPro Election Trend Berlin: Grüne 16,1 % (8. September 2026)
- INSA / dawum.de: Abgeordnetenhauswahl Berlin – Grüne 15 %, BSW 3 % (4. September 2026)
Verdict: Hit
Die Grünen erreichten laut übereinstimmenden Quellen (wahlrecht.de, ZDF heute, Wikipedia EN, wahlen-berlin.de) bei der Abgeordnetenhauswahl Berlin am 20. September 2026 exakt 14,3 % der Stimmen. Damit überschritten sie die Schwelle von 14,0 % knapp, aber eindeutig. Die Vorhersage trat ein. Das Ergebnis lag allerdings unter den Umfragewerten von 15–16 % (INSA, PolitPro), was die typische Umfrageunsicherheit (Abstand ~1,5–1,8 Pp.) bestätigt. Quellen: wahlrecht.de, ZDF heute (zdfheute.de), 2026 Berlin state election (en.wikipedia.org), wahlen-berlin.de.
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