Berlin state election (September 20, 2026): Bündnis 90/Die Grünen win more than 14.0% of votes (confirmed by Berlin electoral officer or tagesschau.de by September 21, 2026)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 4. September 2026
·
Predicted for 20. September 2026
·
Based on: Speculative
Current Berlin polls (late August / early September 2026) show Grüne at 15-17%, comfortably above the 14.0% prediction threshold. The Greens have structural strength in Berlin (urban young voters in Pankow, Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg, Charlottenburg). Despite some erosion from the 2023 result of 18.9%, falling below 14% when three independent polls show 15%+ is unlikely. No Polymarket market for Berlin party results found.
Data basis for this prediction
- dawum.de / wahlrecht.de: Grüne Berlin 15–17% (August/September 2026)
- Abgeordnetenhauswahl Berlin 2023: Grüne 18,9% (Landeswahlleiter Berlin)
- Wikipedia: 2026 Berlin state election, polling section (Aug 2026)
Verdict: Hit
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen erzielten bei der Abgeordnetenhauswahl Berlin am 20. September 2026 laut Wikipedia und wahlrecht.de 14,3 % der Zweitstimmen. Damit überschritten sie die Schwelle von 14,0 % knapp, aber eindeutig. Die Vorhersage ist eingetreten. (Quellen: de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wahl_zum_Abgeordnetenhaus_von_Berlin_2026, wahlrecht.de/news/2026/abgeordnetenhauswahl-berlin-2026.html)
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Democrats won both chambers historically at the November 3, 2026 midterms (Senate 54:44, House 258 seats — largest majority since 1993). Trump's disapproval rating stands at 62% (FiveThirtyEight, Nov 2026). Based on documented behavioral pattern: after the 2020 presidential election, Trump posted voter fraud claims within 48 hours; after the 2022 midterms, challenges followed within a week. Metaculus community places >70% probability on public contesting after major GOP losses. A public statement via Truth Social, press release, or confirmed media interview by November 15, 2026 counts as verification (Reuters or AP).
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Ukrainian, US, and Russian negotiators convene November 10–11 in Abu Dhabi. Russia conducted large-scale long-range strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure and logistics hubs on November 3–4; Ukraine responded with drone strikes on the Ryazan refinery. Positions on territory and security guarantees remain far apart. No Polymarket or Kalshi market covers this specific event; historical base rate for failure of comparable trilateral talks: >80%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Spain holds a general election on 29 November 2026. Polymarket prices Feijóo as next PM at 85%, Kalshi at 82% — both serve as anchors. A separate Polymarket market gives PP+Vox a 92% probability of a joint majority (>176/350 seats). Current polls (Sondaxe) show PP at 29.2% narrowly ahead of PSOE (26.9%); Vox is tracking slightly higher. Feijóo failed to form a government in 2023, but market odds reflect the lesson learned: PP+Vox is now seen as stable enough. No deviation from market anchor warranted.