Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election (20 September 2026): BSW (Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht) fails to clear the 5% threshold and does not enter the parliament (confirmed by Berlin returning officer or tagesschau.de by 21 September 2026)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 7. September 2026
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Predicted for 20. September 2026
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Based on: Ongoing Event
Berlin polls (DAWUM.de, early September 2026) show BSW at only 3.4–3.6%, well below the 5% threshold. Reaching 5% by election day would require an exceptional late surge with no polling evidence. Analogous to the FDP, which is also below 5% and predicted to fail the threshold in a separate open prediction.
Data basis for this prediction
- BSW Berlin Umfragen 3,4–3,6 % (DAWUM.de, Stand Anfang Sep. 2026)
- Wikipedia: 2026 Berlin state election — Umfragentabelle (Sep. 2026)
- Vergleich FDP Berlin ~3,4 % (DAWUM.de, Sep. 2026)
Verdict: Hit
BSW erzielte bei der Berliner Abgeordnetenhauswahl am 20. September 2026 exakt 4,7 % der Zweitstimmen (86.041 Stimmen) und verfehlte damit die 5-%-Sperrklausel knapp. Die Partei zog nicht ins Abgeordnetenhaus ein. Die Vorhersage trat damit ein. Bemerkenswert: BSW schnitt deutlich besser ab als die Umfragen (3,4–3,6 %) erwarten ließen – der tatsächliche Endspurt war also real, reichte aber dennoch nicht über die Hürde. Quellen: Wikipedia (Wahl zum Abgeordnetenhaus von Berlin 2026), offizielle Ergebnisse wahlen-berlin.de.
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