🏛️ Politics · Next Month

Berlin state election (September 20, 2026): BSW (Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht) fails to clear the 5% threshold and does not enter the Abgeordnetenhaus (confirmed by Landeswahlleiter Berlin or tagesschau.de by September 21, 2026)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 4. September 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

90%

BSW polls at just 3.4% per politpro.eu aggregate (as of September 2, 2026) in Berlin — around 1.6 percentage points below the 5% threshold. No recent Berlin poll shows BSW exceeding 4%. Given stable polling underperformance and typical Berlin polling tolerance (±1.5pp, 4 weeks before the election), entry into the Abgeordnetenhaus is very unlikely. No Polymarket market for Berlin-BSW available.

Data basis for this prediction

politpro.eu Berlin Wahltrend 2. Sep 2026: BSW 3,4 % (politpro.eu/de/berlin)
Dawum.de Berlin Sonntagsfrage Aggregat: BSW stabil 3–4 % (alle Umfragen Sep 2026)
Wikipedia: '2026 Berlin state election' — BSW in allen jüngsten Umfragen unter 4 %
Historische Berliner Umfragetoleranz letzte 4 Wochen vor Wahl: ±1,5 pp (2021/2023)

Verdict: Hit

BSW erzielte bei der Abgeordnetenhauswahl Berlin am 20. September 2026 laut übereinstimmenden Quellen (Wikipedia, ZDF heute, wahlrecht.de, kommunalwiki.boell.de) 4,7 % der Stimmen und scheiterte damit knapp an der 5 %-Sperrklausel. Der Einzug ins Abgeordnetenhaus blieb ihnen verwehrt – die Vorhersage ist eingetreten. Allerdings schnitt BSW mit 4,7 % deutlich besser ab als das Umfrageaggregat (3,4 %, Stand 2. Sep 2026) erwarten ließ; das Ergebnis lag rund 1,3 Prozentpunkte über dem prognostizierten Wert, dennoch unterhalb der entscheidenden Hürde. Quellen: https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wahl_zum_Abgeordnetenhaus_von_Berlin_2026, https://www.zdfheute.de/politik/deutschland/wahl-berlin-2026-alle-ergebnisse-grafiken-102.html, https://kommunalwiki.boell.de/index.php/Wahlen_in_Berlin_2026

Related Predictions

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Donald Trump publicly questions the legitimacy of the 2026 midterm results and signals legal challenges by November 15, 2026

Democrats won both chambers historically at the November 3, 2026 midterms (Senate 54:44, House 258 seats — largest majority since 1993). Trump's disapproval rating stands at 62% (FiveThirtyEight, Nov 2026). Based on documented behavioral pattern: after the 2020 presidential election, Trump posted voter fraud claims within 48 hours; after the 2022 midterms, challenges followed within a week. Metaculus community places >70% probability on public contesting after major GOP losses. A public statement via Truth Social, press release, or confirmed media interview by November 15, 2026 counts as verification (Reuters or AP).

72%

Next Week · Predicted for 15. Nov 2026

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Ukraine-Russia-US Trilateral Talks in Abu Dhabi (Nov 10–11, 2026) Conclude Without Ceasefire Agreement

Ukrainian, US, and Russian negotiators convene November 10–11 in Abu Dhabi. Russia conducted large-scale long-range strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure and logistics hubs on November 3–4; Ukraine responded with drone strikes on the Ryazan refinery. Positions on territory and security guarantees remain far apart. No Polymarket or Kalshi market covers this specific event; historical base rate for failure of comparable trilateral talks: >80%.

76%

Next Week · Predicted for 11. Nov 2026

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Alberto Núñez Feijóo (PP) secures parliamentary majority with Vox coalition and becomes Spanish Prime Minister — General Election 29 November 2026 (confirmed by Junta Electoral Central or AP by 1 December 2026)

Spain holds a general election on 29 November 2026. Polymarket prices Feijóo as next PM at 85%, Kalshi at 82% — both serve as anchors. A separate Polymarket market gives PP+Vox a 92% probability of a joint majority (>176/350 seats). Current polls (Sondaxe) show PP at 29.2% narrowly ahead of PSOE (26.9%); Vox is tracking slightly higher. Feijóo failed to form a government in 2023, but market odds reflect the lesson learned: PP+Vox is now seen as stable enough. No deviation from market anchor warranted.

83%

Next Month · Predicted for 29. Nov 2026