🏛️ Politics · Next Week

Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus Election (September 20, 2026): BSW (Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht) achieves less than 5.0% of votes and does not enter the Berlin parliament (confirmed by Berlin election commission or tagesschau.de by September 21, 2026)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 12. September 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

70%

Infratest-dimap poll of September 7–9, 2026 (t-online.de, dawum.de): BSW polls at only 4% in Berlin – clearly below the 5% threshold. Current polling: CDU 21%, Die Linke 19%, Greens 18%, AfD 18%, SPD 11%, BSW 4%. BSW is far less rooted in Berlin than in eastern German states; Berlin's electorate with its strong Green and Left-wing base offers BSW limited mobilization potential. No current Berlin poll shows BSW above 5%. No Polymarket market available.

Data basis for this prediction

Infratest-dimap Berlin-Umfrage: BSW 4 % (7.–9. September 2026, t-online.de/dawum.de)
Ipsos Umfrage zur Wahl in Berlin 2026 (ipsos.com, September 2026)
Wahlrecht.de Berlin-Sonntagsfragen: BSW < 5 % in allen Umfragen (September 2026)

Verdict: Hit

BSW erzielte bei der Abgeordnetenhauswahl Berlin am 20. September 2026 laut vorläufigem Ergebnis des Landeswahlleiters Berlin (Bekanntgabe 21. September 2026, 02:14 Uhr) 4,7 % der Zweitstimmen – damit klar unter der 5-%-Hürde und ohne Einzug ins Abgeordnetenhaus. Die Vorhersage (< 5,0 %, kein Einzug) ist in vollem Umfang eingetreten. Quellen: berlin.de/wahlen (Landeswahlleiter), wahlen-berlin.de/wahlen/BE2026, Wikipedia 'Wahl zum Abgeordnetenhaus von Berlin 2026'.

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