🏛️ Politics · Next Week

Berlin state election (September 20, 2026): AfD receives more than 18.0% of valid votes cast

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 18. September 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

55%

The latest INSA poll (September 17, 2026) gives the AfD 19% in Berlin – its first time leading in a Berlin capital poll. PolitPro's trend figure shows 17.8%. The average of both surveys sits at ~18.4%, lifting the probability of a result above 18.0% to ~55%. Historically, right-wing populist parties in Germany tend to slightly outperform their polling numbers on election day. No open AfD prediction for Berlin exists; all prior party predictions cover CDU, SPD, Linke, Grüne, FDP, and BSW.

Data basis for this prediction

INSA-Poll Berlin 17.09.2026: AfD 19 %, erstmals führend (TVP World / INSA)
PolitPro Trend 18.09.2026: AfD 17,8 %, Linke 20,3 %, CDU 19,9 % (politpro.eu)
Wikipedia DE Wahl Abgeordnetenhaus Berlin 2026: Polling-Übersicht (wikipedia.org)
Historische AfD-Überperformance bei deutschen Landtagswahlen 2024–2026 (diverse Quellen)

Verdict: Miss

Die AfD erzielte bei der Berliner Abgeordnetenhauswahl am 20. September 2026 laut den offiziellen Ergebnissen (wahlen-berlin.de, Wikipedia, ZDF heute, taz.de) 16,3 % der Stimmen – deutlich unter der Schwelle von 18,0 %. Trotz des INSA-Umfragewertes von 19 % und eines Trendwertes von 17,8 % blieb die AfD am Wahltag hinter den Umfragen zurück. Die stärkste Kraft wurde die Linke mit 25,7 %, gefolgt von CDU (18,8 %), AfD (16,3 %), Grünen (14,3 %) und SPD (12,1 %). Die Annahme, rechtspopulistische Parteien würden ihr Umfrageergebnis am Wahltag übertreffen, traf hier nicht zu – das Gegenteil war der Fall (ca. 2–3 Prozentpunkte Verlust gegenüber Umfragen). Quellen: wahlen-berlin.de, ZDF heute (zdfheute.de), taz.de.

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