🏛️ Politics · Next Week

Berlin state election (September 20, 2026): AfD receives more than 16.5% of votes cast

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 15. September 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

72%

Current polls (Politpro.eu, as of ca. September 14, 2026) show the AfD at 17.9% in Berlin — clearly above the 16.5% threshold. A drop of more than 1.4 percentage points from current polls would be required to miss the prediction. The AfD ranks third behind Die Linke (19.8%) and CDU (19.6%). No Berlin-specific Polymarket markets available; calibration based on Politpro.eu polling data. Note: the open MV prediction (AfD >30%) is separate; in Berlin the party is weaker but firmly double-digit.

Data basis for this prediction

Politpro.eu: AfD Berlin 17,9 % in Umfragen (ca. 14.09.2026)
Wikipedia: 2026 Berlin state election – Poll Tracker (15.09.2026)
Politpro.eu: Sitzprojektion Berlin Sep 2026 – AfD 27 Sitze von 150
Politpro.eu: Gesamtübersicht Berlin Sep 2026 (Linke 19,8 %, CDU 19,6 %, AfD 17,9 %, Grüne 16,1 %, SPD 12,9 %)

Verdict: Miss

Die AfD erzielte bei der Abgeordnetenhauswahl Berlin am 20. September 2026 laut Landeswahlleiter Berlin 16,3 % der Zweitstimmen — und verfehlte damit die Prognoseschwelle von 16,5 % knapp um 0,2 Prozentpunkte. Die Partei schnitt zwar besser ab als bei der vorherigen Wahl (+7,2 Prozentpunkte) und wurde drittstärkste Kraft hinter Die Linke (25,7 %) und CDU (18,8 %), blieb aber unter der definierten Schwelle. Quellen: wahlen-berlin.de (Landeswahlleiter), Wikipedia 'Wahl zum Abgeordnetenhaus von Berlin 2026', Al Jazeera (20.09.2026), The Berliner (21.09.2026).

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