🏛️ Politics · Next Week

Berlin State Election (September 20, 2026): AfD receives more than 16.0% of votes cast (confirmed by Berlin state returning officer or tagesschau.de by September 21, 2026)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 11. September 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

68%

Current polls (as of September 11, 2026) show AfD Berlin at 17.8% – a historical high (2023: 9.1%; 2021: 8.0%). The polling average provides approximately 1.8 percentage points of safety margin versus the 16.0% threshold. Full party picture: Die Linke 20.7%, CDU 19.9%, AfD 17.8%, Greens 16.1%, SPD 12.1%, BSW 3.6%, FDP 3.4% (Wikipedia 2026 Berlin state election). Existing Berlin predictions cover Greens/Linke/SPD/CDU/FDP but no AfD threshold – this prediction fills the gap. No prediction markets available.

Data basis for this prediction

Wikipedia: 2026 Berlin state election – AfD 17,8 % im Polling-Mittelwert (Stand 11.09.2026)
PolitPro.eu Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus 2026: AfD 17,8 % (Stand 11.09.2026)
Berliner Abgeordnetenhauswahl 2023: AfD 9,1 % Endergebnis (Landeswahlleiter Berlin)
Wahlrecht.de Umfragen Landtage Berlin, Trend September 2026

Verdict: Hit

Die AfD erzielte bei der Abgeordnetenhauswahl Berlin am 20. September 2026 laut offiziellen Ergebnissen (wahlen-berlin.de) und übereinstimmenden Medienberichten (Al Jazeera, Wikipedia, Politpro) 16,3 % der abgegebenen Stimmen – und übertraf damit die Schwelle von 16,0 % knapp, aber klar. Die Vorhersage ist eingetreten. Quellen: https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/wahlen/BE2026/Afspraes/AGH/ergebnisse.html · https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Berlin_state_election · https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/20/two-german-states-go-to-the-polls-after-far-right-gains

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