Berlin state election (September 20, 2026): AfD receives more than 16.0% of votes cast (confirmed by state returning officer Berlin or tagesschau.de by September 21, 2026)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 10. September 2026
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Predicted for 20. September 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Current Berlin polling (as of September 2026) shows the AfD consistently at ~17–18% in an extremely tight four-way contest with Die Linke (19–22%), CDU (~19–20%), and Greens (15–18%). The 16.0% threshold is clearly below the polling average; a miss would require systematic polling overestimation of the AfD. No prediction market available; polling base rate implies ~65% probability for AfD >16%.
Data basis for this prediction
- infratest dimap / ARD: Berlin Abgeordnetenhauswahl Umfrage – AfD ca. 18 %, Linke führt (Stand 05.09.2026)
- wahlrecht.de: Wahlumfragen Berlin 2026 – AfD 17–18 %, vier Parteien unter 20 % (Stand 08.09.2026)
- t-online.de: Neue Umfrage Berlin-Wahl 2026 – Linke legt zu, AfD und CDU gleichauf bei ~18–19 % (Stand 06.09.2026)
Verdict: Hit
Die AfD erzielte bei der Abgeordnetenhauswahl Berlin am 20. September 2026 laut dem vorläufigen Ergebnis des Landeswahlleiters (festgestellt am 21. September 2026, 02:14 Uhr) 16,3 % der Zweitstimmen – damit wurde die Schwelle von 16,0 % überschritten. Die Vorhersage trat ein. Quellen: https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/wahlen/BE2026/Afspraes/agh/index.html und https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/pressemitteilungen/2026/pressemitteilung.1716422.php
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