🏛️ Politics · Next Week

Berlin state election (September 20, 2026): AfD receives more than 16.0% of votes cast (confirmed by Berlin State Returning Officer or tagesschau.de by September 21, 2026)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 8. September 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

77%

The current PolitPro election trend (September 8, 2026) shows AfD Berlin at 17.9% – well above the 16.0% threshold. For comparison: AfD received only 9.1% in the 2023 repeat election. The ~8.8 percentage-point increase reflects federal migration trends and mobilization gains. With a typical ±2pp forecast confidence band, the lower bound is ~15.9%; the probability of the final result exceeding 16.0% is ~77%. No direct Polymarket contract found for this threshold.

Data basis for this prediction

PolitPro Election Trend Berlin: AfD 17,9 % (Stand 8. September 2026)
Wikipedia: 2026 Berlin state election (abgerufen 8. September 2026)
Wahlrecht.de: Sonntagsfrage Abgeordnetenhaus Berlin #aghw (September 2026)
Dawum.de: Wahlumfragen Berlin – letzter Eintrag September 2026

Verdict: Hit

Die AfD erzielte bei der Abgeordnetenhauswahl Berlin am 20. September 2026 laut Landeswahlleiter Berlin 16,3 % der Zweitstimmen – damit wurde der Schwellenwert von 16,0 % übertroffen. Die Vorhersage traf ein: Der PolitPro-Wahltrend (17,9 %) lag zwar etwas über dem tatsächlichen Ergebnis, aber das Resultat lag klar über der prognostizierten Untergrenze. Quellen: wahlen-berlin.de (amtliches Ergebnis), Wikipedia 'Wahl zum Abgeordnetenhaus von Berlin 2026', berlin.de Pressemitteilung Landeswahlleiter.

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