📈 Economy
Hit
✦ AI
GM has beaten EPS consensus in five of the last six quarters, delivering ~$3.08 per share in Q1 2026, well above expectations. Tariff-driven US production shifts support margins; North American truck business remains strong. No Polymarket market for this event; the historical S&P 500 EPS beat rate was 76% in Q1 2026 per FactSet. The ~$2.80 consensus looks conservative.
📈 Economy
Hit
✦ AI
Burnham formally took office on 21 July (Royal audience). His pro-EU stance and EU-rapprochement plans are seen as GBP-positive. EUR/USD is expected above 1.15 on 23 July per open Cassandra forecast; with EUR/GBP ≈ 0.86 this implies GBP/USD ≈ 1.33–1.35. Polymarket priced Burnham at 99% as UK PM as of 7 July 2026. Risk: early uncertainty about fiscal policy.
📈 Economy
Hit
✦ AI
UK headline CPI held at 2.8% YoY in both April and May 2026. The ONS June 2026 data point is due on July 22. Counteracting forces: Brent crude at USD 87.72/barrel (+26.74% YoY) supports UK energy costs and limits sharp downside; at the same time, stagnating European services demand (Cassandra signal: German services PMI below 50) may dampen imported services prices. No Polymarket anchor available. We estimate 35% probability for a print at or below 2.7% — a contrarian view vs. the consensus expectation of a stable 2.8%.
📈 Economy
Miss
✦ AI
LMT benefits structurally in 2026 from defense budget ramp-ups: NATO members average 2.7% of GDP; the FY2026 Pentagon budget stands at USD 890bn. In Q1 2026, LMT beat consensus by ~8% (USD 7.37 vs. 6.82). The company has beaten EPS consensus in six consecutive quarters. F-35 delivery pace and HIMARS orders are on track. Bookmaker odds imply ~73% beat probability.
📈 Economy
Miss
✦ AI
AT&T reports Q2 2026 results on July 22, 2026 at 8:30 a.m. ET. The Zacks consensus is $0.59 adjusted EPS (+9.3% YoY vs. $0.54 in Q2 2025). Notably, the estimate was revised up +1.3% over the last 30 days and the Earnings ESP is +4.83% — a strong statistical beat signal. Key growth drivers are wireless net adds and fiber (FiberOp) rollout; full-year guidance stands at $2.31 EPS. No Polymarket market available. Based on Earnings ESP model and AT&T historical beat rate: ~68%.
📈 Economy
Hit
✦ AI
TXN reports Q2 2026 results on July 22 after market close. Consensus EPS is $1.92 (Zacks: $1.91), with company guidance of $1.77–$2.05. Estimates rose 22.3% over the past 90 days, signaling positive demand trends in the Analog semiconductor segment. Polymarket prices ~80.5% probability that TXN generates >$4.0B Analog revenue — a broad beat indicator. TXN has beaten EPS consensus in 14 of the last 16 quarters. Automotive and industrial demand are recovering cyclically.
📈 Economy
Miss
✦ AI
Alphabet reports Q2 2026 after market close on July 22. Wall Street consensus: approx. USD 2.89 Non-GAAP EPS (+4.7% trend over 90 days). Google Cloud grew 63% in Q1 2026 to USD 20.0bn with a record EBIT margin of 32.9%; backlog nearly doubled to USD 462bn. Analysts expect ~60% cloud growth in Q2. Alphabet has beaten EPS consensus in each of the last four consecutive quarters. No specific Polymarket market found; AI/cloud momentum and historical beat rate underpin the high probability.
📈 Economy
Hit
✦ AI
PMI reports Q2 2026 before market open on July 22. Zacks consensus: $2.04 (+6.8% YoY). IQOS volumes accelerating globally; Zil.nova gaining US traction. PMI beat adjusted EPS in all four prior quarters, avg. positive surprise 4.9% — no Polymarket market found, historical beat rate is primary anchor. After a $500M RBH charge, PMI already raised its FY2026 EPS outlook.
📈 Economy
Hit
✦ AI
USD/JPY at 162.51 on July 21. A move to 163.00 requires only +0.3%. Drivers: BOJ expected to hold at 1.00% on July 30–31 (open prediction) — no near-term JPY-support signal. ECB holds at 2.25% on July 23 (open prediction), keeping rate differential stable. Risk-on environment (Polymarket: 95% for positive S&P 500 open on July 21). Counter-risk: Japan MoF repeatedly threatens FX intervention above 160–165.
📈 Economy
Miss
✦ AI
Tesla reports Q2 2026 results after close on July 22. Non-GAAP EPS consensus ~$0.52 (range $0.47–$0.55). Polymarket prices in 75.5% beat probability. Tesla delivered a record 480,126 vehicles in Q2 2026 (+25% YoY), well above estimates — signaling strong top-line and potential margin improvement. Q1 2026: $0.41 Non-GAAP EPS vs. $0.37 consensus. Multiple Seeking Alpha analyses headline 'beat is likely'. Zacks consensus $0.47; higher estimates at $0.54–$0.55. TSLA still ~-17% YTD, keeping expectations low.
📈 Economy
Hit
✦ AI
GE Aerospace reports Q2 2026 on July 22, 2026, pre-market. The company benefits from booming aviation demand (LEAP engines, RPK +8% YoY Q1 2026) and elevated defence spending (F110/F404). Q1 2026 beat adj. EPS of $1.49 vs. consensus $1.31; order backlog exceeds $150B. Analyst expectations for Q2 are approx. $1.65 per share (Non-GAAP). No Polymarket quote available; historical beat rate ~80% over 8 quarters.
📈 Economy
Hit
✦ AI
ZEW publishes its monthly expectations indicator for Germany on July 21, 2026. June 2026: +10.5 (jumped +20.7 pts), the first positive reading since the Middle East conflict erupted in March. No Polymarket/Kalshi market. Drivers for another positive reading: expected Iran resolution eases energy prices, auto (+21.9 pts) and pharma (+16 pts) recovery. Risks: ECB rate hike to 2.25% (June 11) pressures construction sub-index (-12); current situation index at -81. Sentiment momentum supports another positive reading.
📈 Economy
Hit
✦ AI
The ZEW jumped in June 2026 from -10.2 to +10.5 points — the strongest monthly gain in over a year (zew.de, June 16, 2026); driven by Iran de-escalation hopes, automotive sector +21.9 points, and chemicals/pharma +16 points. The existing open prediction only covers 'positive (>0)'; >15 points is a clearly distinct threshold. The Trading Economics consensus for July stands at approximately +10.5 (flat), meaning >15 points would represent another positive surprise. Supportive: the ECB is expected to hold rates on July 23 (existing open prediction). Headwinds: construction crisis, US tariff risks, and potential Middle East escalation.
📈 Economy
Miss
✦ AI
The US labor market continues moderate expansion per the IMF (global growth 3.0% for 2026; WEO Update July 8, 2026). Soft CPI data reduces recession concerns. ADP consensus estimates for comparable months typically ran 120,000–150,000 net positions — the 100,000 threshold provides meaningful safety margin. Risk: Iran crisis and trade tariffs could slow manufacturing employment. No ADP forecast markets on Polymarket/Kalshi. Own estimate: ~68%.
📈 Economy
Hit
✦ AI
Halliburton reports before market open on July 21, 2026. Analysts expect adjusted EPS of approximately $0.54 per share (Barchart). The company has beaten or matched consensus EPS in each of its last four quarters. Elevated oil prices driven by the Hormuz crisis (Brent $84.63/bbl) support customer demand for oilfield services; upstream capex remains robust. Historical beat rate for HAL is approximately 75%. Minor headwind: cost inflation for drilling materials and skilled labour shortages could marginally compress margins.
📈 Economy
Miss
✦ AI
Capital One (NYSE: COF) reports Q2 2026 results on July 21 after market close. Adjusted EPS consensus: ~$4.87 (-11.1% YoY), weighed down by elevated credit-loss rates. In July 2026, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, BofA, Wells Fargo, Citi and Morgan Stanley all beat Q2 estimates (CNBC, July 14–15, 2026) — a clear sector tailwind. COF benefits from resilient card volumes and consumer lending. Historical large-cap bank EPS beat rate: ~70–75% (FactSet). No Polymarket market for COF Q2 found. Probability 68%.
📈 Economy
Hit
✦ AI
Analyst consensus for GM Q2 2026 is approx. $3.13 adjusted EPS (Zacks/MarketBeat, July 17, 2026), implying ~2.4% YoY growth. GM has beaten consensus in eight consecutive quarters. Strong North American pickup-truck demand and improving EV margins support the result; tariff exposure (Mexico/Canada) was already priced into guidance. No specific GM prediction market available — 100% historical beat rate over last eight quarters used as primary calibration anchor.
📈 Economy
Hit
✦ AI
Northrop Grumman reports before market open on July 21, 2026. Adjusted EPS consensus: ~$6.81 (Benzinga, July 18, 2026), revenue consensus ~$10.79B. NOC has beaten EPS estimates in four consecutive quarters. Structural tailwinds: record NATO defense spending in 2026, ongoing B-21 Raider serial production, GBSD/Sentinel ICBM program ramp-up. No direct Polymarket market; 4-for-4 beat streak implies ~73% probability.
📈 Economy
Hit
✦ AI
Gold closed at ~$4,017 on July 17, 2026 (Trading Economics/LiteFinance). The ongoing US-Iran war (7 consecutive strike nights through July 17, Al Jazeera) supports safe havens; Brent rose +10% MoM. Downside risk: surprise weekend ceasefire. No direct Polymarket signal; current quote sits ~0.4% above the threshold.
📈 Economy
Miss
✦ AI
Brent closed at $88.10 on July 17 (+4.59% in one day) after a 14%+ weekly surge. Trigger: renewed Iran-war hostilities July 7–8 broke the June ceasefire; IEA July 2026 report confirms Gulf exports still ~8 mb/d below pre-war levels. $90 is the next psychological resistance; a further ~2% daily move is needed. WTI Polymarket July: ~55% for 'WTI hits $85'. Headwind: possible profit-taking after the steep run.